Sunday was unseasonably cool with a lot of cloud cover. In response to much more sun, Monday will warm but stay just below average.
Today and Tonight: All sunny skies are on tap for the beginning of this new week. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s. You will not notice any humidity as winds are northwesterly at about 5-10mph. Overnight will stay clear and feature seasonable temperatures in the mid 50s.
Up Next: Sunshine will stick around through much of the week. A front will pass through on Wednesday night, but is only expected to produce a few showers and storms. While this will be a cold front, don’t expect the boundary to stay true to its namesake. Humidity will begin to creep back on the other side. Highs will climb into the upper 80s, even flirting with 90 by the end of the week and overnight lows will stop in the low 70s. The next more significant cold front is pegged for Sunday, but it is a little early for precipitation and temperature details.
THE SCIENCE: A surface high pressure system and dry air will settle over the region tonight before shifting east on Tuesday. Then, another upper level trough is expected to move across the Central Plains. The GFS and ECMWF models are show the base of trough becoming slightly negatively tilted from east Oklahoma to northeast Texas. An associated surface front will push east across the forecast area Wednesday night. Precipitable water values of up to 1.9 inches will pool along and ahead of front. The associated dynamics will sweep across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface based cape values will increase up to 1800 to 2800 j/kg north to south across the forecast area and helicity around 230 to 180 m/s north to south across the forecast area Wednesday night according to GFS. These parameters don’t only increase the chance for rain but also some stronger thunderstorms. Once the area of activity clears, there won’t be much change as instability and moisture should return by Thursday night. As a result, lower levels will remain humid on Friday with a slight chance of some convection possible on Saturday. Up next, the GFS shows a deep upper level closed low over the Southern Plains Saturday night while ECMWF shows a long wave developing from Minnesota to Texas. Both scenarios create a strong wind field across the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday through Sunday. Aside from scattered, possibly strong, thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, winds will be stiff and may hamper outdoor activities this weekend.
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