A weak front passed through last night and it has knocked our temperatures down a peg, but still not to seasonable levels. The risk for strong thunderstorms returns Tuesday Night. The format this time should be a little different than last week’s tornado outbreak—with a line or cluster of storms moving through over a shorter timeframe.
Today and Tonight: Skies will start cloudy with a little sun breaking out by afternoon. While it won’t be as warm as the weekend, highs will still be above average, making it to near 70 degrees. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Up Next: Tuesday will begin dry. Clouds are expected to increase through Valentine’s Day and showers and thunderstorms may disrupt some plans late. As of now, timing brings action into the area just after the evening commute, but obviously just a small speed up in the system could mean a dicey drive. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the WBRZ Weather forecast area in a “slight risk” for severe weather. The main threats with this system will be gusty wind as storm form into a cluster or line. Still, it is possible for a tornado to spin up within these clusters. Duration will not be as long as Last Tuesday’s event as storms should progress through the area quickly. Check in with the forecast through Tuesday and make sure you have a way to get watches and warnings in case they are issued. A NOAA Weather Radio and the free WBRZ WX. App. can both provide those important alerts. A shower may linger into the early morning hours of Wednesday, but the severe weather threat will be well passed by that time. High will be cooler on the other side of the passing storm system. Highs will stop in the low 60s on Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon sunshine.
THE SCIENCE: Winds will begin to switch around to the southeast going into Tuesday as a surface high moves toward the East Coast. An upper level low is expected to track into eastern Texas by Tuesday Afternoon. At the same time, another upper trough will be dropping south across Canada into the Great Lakes Region. The southern low will merge with the northern trough Tuesday Night into Wednesday. As this happens, surface cyclogenesis will begin to take place in Southeast Texas. Medium range forecast models continue to align more closely in the timing, location and track of this surface trough. They show this surface low moving into Central Louisiana around 6pm Tuesday which is about 6 hours sooner than shown 24 hours ago. The low will progress east across South-Central Mississippi and Alabama during the following 12 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving east along and ahead of the cold front attached to the surface low Tuesday Afternoon, reaching western portions of the forecast area around 6pm Tuesday. Model soundings show destabilization of the atmosphere occurring as low level moisture increases. The amount of instability is in question with some forecast profiles of the atmosphere showing minimal CAPE values and others have it exceeding 1500j/kg. Models do agree that there will be a northward limit to severe potential due to an inversion. Therefore better chances will be found along and south of I-12 and likely closer to the coast. Wrap around moisture will lead to light showers on the backside of the low for much of the day on Wednesday, but some sun is possible by the second half. The remainder of the week will be quiet as the region is under post trough airmass followed by upper ridging.
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