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Monday monring video forecast

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The week ahead could quite possibly be the warmest so far in 2018. Fortunately, despite several afternoons near 90 degrees, the humidity will take some time to build.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Lacking cloud cover, temperatures will climb into the 70s by 8am, and by 10am we will be breaking into the 80s. Highs could tick up to 90 degrees during the mid-afternoon hours with just light, northwest winds. Overnight, thermometers will fall into the mid 60s.

Up Next: Temperatures should stay elevated and hovering around 90 degrees for each of the next several afternoons. Although a dry warmth at first, humidity will be increasing by late in the week as winds come in from the Gulf. This will input enough moisture into the atmosphere for the possibility of afternoon showers and storms firing up over the weekend. A lot could still happen before then, so we will only carry low rain chances for now.

THE EXPLANATION:

High pressure is dominant, and will be camping out in Texas over the next 48 hours. A weak front will move in from the northwest, slightly increasing cloud cover into Wednesday. The high pressure will keep convective development at bay through much of the week even with that weak front crossing. Thanks to ample sunshine, high temperatures will likely end up a few degrees warmer than forecast model guidance and therefore, 90 degrees seems possible each of the next several afternoons. Additionally, since humidity will be slow to return, the more efficient warming properties of dry air support this idea. The front will nudge the high east and into the Gulf, which will in turn allow for a more southerly flow as we approach the weekend. By that time, the atmosphere may uncap just enough for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.   

--Dr. Josh

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