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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Friday morning video forecast

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A round of unsettled weather is on tap before another sunny and seasonable stretch. Unfortunately, the rain could affect some weekend plans.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: An increase in clouds is expected on Friday in advance of the next storm system. An isolated shower is possible, especially late in the day. Highs will be in the mid 60s with light, east winds. The chance for showers will continue to increase on an overcast night with lows in the mid 50s.    

Up Next: Rain will continue to increase in coverage on Saturday, which is shaping up to be wet. More than two inches of rain is possible, with isolated amounts even higher.

Even if total rainfall is on the lighter side, steady showers should have you considering an indoor backup plan for any outdoor activities scheduled. Rain is expected to clear out on Sunday morning hopefully allowing the first Baton Rouge area Mardi Gras parade—the Mystic Krewe of Mutts—to go off without a hitch. Seasonable temperatures will follow that system from Sunday into the middle of next week. Forecast models are hinting at another Canadian cold front by the end of next week and that will bring our next chance of rain followed by a chill.

THE EXPLANATION:

Clouds will increase on Friday thanks to the development of deep southwest flow and resulting moisture return interacting with an area of positive vorticity advection in the mid-levels. A shower is possible. Then, an area of low pressure or surface trough is expected to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This are of lower pressure is expected to pass along the central Gulf Coast leading to a steady period of rain before a cold front pushes through the area on Sunday. At this time, forecast models are indicating the possibility of an inch or two of rain, which seems to be a fair assessment given the duration of the rainfall and anticipated intensity. Moisture associated with this front will be displaced well ahead of the parent trough by Sunday morning, effectively ending precipitation. Temperatures should not climb much on Sunday due to cold air advection so we will forecast a small diurnal temperature range with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Like Monday’s cold front, the Canadian connection does not seem to be there with the weekend cold front either, so it does not seem that a serious cold spell looms behind this one. However, we can still expect some lows in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking way ahead, much of next week should be quiet, however forecast models are indicating another front with a chance of precipitation and then possibly a freeze or two leading into next weekend.

--Dr. Josh

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