Even with showers in the forecast tonight, a packed weekend of events couldn’t ask for a much better February forecast—especially when it comes to temperatures.
Today and Tonight: Clouds will increase quickly on Friday with temperatures making it into the upper 60s. Showers are expected to develop as early as afternoon, with a chance for rain and thunderstorms through Saturday Morning. This does mean that Friday Evening outdoor events like LSU Baseball will need to be wary of rain. All indications from high resolution future radar are that the highest rain chances will be between 6pm – 2am.
Up Next: Skies will clear out in a hurry on Saturday and a dry and warm weekend is in store. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will stop in the upper 50s on Sunday Morning before thermometers take a run at 80 degrees during a mostly sunny afternoon. Fans at Alex Box Stadium along with the rescheduled Krewe of Artemis, Krewe of Mystique and Krewe of Mutts revelers will call the weather a treat when compared to some past February events! Rain and thunderstorms return to the forecast by Tuesday.
THE SCIENCE: Changes come quickly on Friday as a surface high pressure system moves eastward allowing return flow to kick back. Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave trough in the upper levels will move across the Central Gulf Coast. Positive vorticity advection and increasing mid-level humidity will allow a deck of clouds to develop through the morning. As the wave interacts with this increasing atmospheric moisture, lift should be vigorous enough to kick out showers and a few thunderstorms. While timing isn’t exact, all models have QPF between 6pm Friday and 6am Saturday. A mostly nocturnal rain is therefore expected, however showers could affect outdoor events on Friday Evening. The wave will quickly exit on Saturday leaving a mainly quiet weekend. As southerly winds continue, highs will once again be pushed well above average and near 80 degrees by Sunday. Partly to mostly sunny afternoons are anticipated with a weak upper level ridge overhead. Into next week, a slower moving and deeper wave will begin to interact with the area. Several days of gulf moisture will provide the approaching wave with plenty of fuel for a more widespread rain event. Some forecast models are cutting the upper low off in East Texas which could lead to a more prolonged event into Wednesday and thus some respectable rain totals. Right now, the WPC is forecasting 1-3” of rain for Southeast Louisiana, but depending on if whether or not that system does indeed cut off, totals may need to be adjusted upward. As far as temperatures go, above average readings are expected right through next week and the end of the month.