A late spring or early summer type of pattern will emerge into the weekend.
Today and Tonight: Another partly sunny and warm afternoon is ahead with high temperatures in the mid 80s. A shower can’t be ruled out, but it appears as though any flare ups will stay west of the Mississippi River. Overnight will be mostly clear with lows in the low 60s.
Up Next: Daytime heating will prompt pop-up showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday. The window of opportunity for any precipitation will be late morning to late afternoon. It appears as through the greatest chance comes on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday. However, no more than 30-40 percent of the area is expected to see rain on any given day. Any activity will be weak and short-lived. Temperatures will stay steady with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
THE SCIENCE: As an upper level ridge breaks down on Friday and Saturday, southeasterly winds will result in moisture increasing, particularly over western portions of the area. Right now, it seems that precipitation will stay at and west of the Atchafalaya River on Friday. By Saturday, rain chances will spread about as far east as I-55 as positive vorticity advection with a weak trough moves across the region. Still, forecast area rain coverage should remain around 30 percent. On Sunday, as that subtle mid-level trough exits east, rain coverage should drop once again. Onshore flow will continue through the period, so there will be moisture available for isolated to scattered precipitation, with the best chances across western sections. This will be primarily during max afternoon heating hours each day through midweek next week. Any given day, don’t expect much more than 20-30 percent rain coverage. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer during the extended period due to the added moisture/higher dew points. But, there will be very little day to day change in high temperatures from Sunday through Wednesday with just a little fluctuation down where showers pop first. We could see a little warmer and drier weather at the end of next week as medium range models hint at ridge rebuilding over the southeastern states.
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