Posted: Jul 17, 2014 11:05 AM by Meteorologist Josh Eachus
Beginning Friday, the Baton Rouge area will run a risk for heavy rainfall that is expected to carry through the weekend.
A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to track across the region between Friday Morning and Friday Afternoon. The initial line of storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Beyond this, forecast models indicate that scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and impact the area through Friday Evening, though with a few breaks in between each batch.
Saturday will be just as unsettled and perhaps, just as wet. It is expected that all locations will see measurable rainfall, with many spots receiving a couple rounds of showers and storms.
Rainfall totals will be on the order of 1-4" through Sunday with areas north of I-10 and west of I-12 most likely receiving the higher end amounts.
Though for the month of July, there is currently a deficit of just over one inch, the incoming rain would add to what has been a slightly wetter than usual year thus far. After starting off relatively dry through April, and needing rain, there has been no lack of liquid since then. For the year, Baton Rouge has received 37.60" of rain, 3.68" above normal to this point in the year. Many locations in Ascension and Assumption Parishes especially, have seen much more.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: A surface low pressure system advancing eastward out of Texas and into North Louisiana will kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms in our area over the next few days. Counterclockwise wind flow around this surface low will mean southerly winds will once again be able to transport moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level wave associated with this low will provide a lifting mechanism for the moist, surface air. As a southwest - northeast oriented front sits to the west with a parallel jet stream aloft, a slow-moving batch of rain and thunderstorms is anticipated for Friday. At the leading edge of precipitation, there could be some gusty wind. As the rain begins, the threat turns to heavy, persistent downpours. With a saturated atmospheric column of moisture and weak steering winds, the storms will likely be slow-movers and efficient rain-makers. A few rounds of showers and storms will pass through the area by Saturday Night and by then anywhere from 1-4" of rain may fall area-wide. Locations farther to the northwest of the viewing area stand the greatest chance of heavy rain. As the low slowly pulls into Kentucky by Sunday, a depression of cool air will be left aloft, which will enhance thunderstorm activity on Sunday. These showers and storms should be more of the summer-time, air mass variety and are not expected to be as potent as the Friday and Saturday round. It appears as though this regime will stick into next week.
You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.
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