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Watching the low in the Gulf of Mexico

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Posted: Jun 22, 2012 6:44 PM by Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum
Updated: Jun 22, 2012 6:44 PM
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

  Rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Topics: tropical, outlook, Gulf of Mexico, Invest 96L, forecast, models, track, scenarios, WBRZ

All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as an area of low pressure (Invest 96L) is trying to get better organized. Right now the low is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly getting more organized. Some showers and thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the low, but there is still some wind shear, or upper-level winds, that is preventing that from happening. Those winds are forecast to weaken, and then the storms will be able to wrap around the low this weekend.

It is possible for this system to form into a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It is forecast to SLOWLY move to the north and sit in the Central Gulf of Mexico all weekend where it could get stronger.

The question still remains...where is it going to go? At this time, we can't give you a specific answer. The forecast models are showing a possible track toward Florida, but a few are also showing a track toward Texas.

Here are two scenarios of what could happen with the low as it moves into the Central Gulf:

1) it gets caught up in a trough of low pressure that will move across the Eastern U.S. by Monday & it heads toward Florida.

2) It misses the trough, but gets diverted to the west as a very large area of high pressure moves over the SE U.S. from the SW US. This would take it into Texas.

A lot could happen, and those scenarios may not come true. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate the system tomorrow. Stay tuned!

The WBRZ Weather Team is also watching this and will have updates in each of the newscasts. You can also get updates on our Cable Weather Channel and on WBRZ's Hurricane Center web page.

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