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Warmth and humidity return prior to the next front

2 months 6 days 14 hours ago Wednesday, October 09 2019 Oct 9, 2019 October 09, 2019 6:02 AM October 09, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Temperatures will climb as some humidity returns the round out the week. While records are not back in play, thermometers will once again be above average.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After a comfortable start, temperatures will stretch back to the upper 80s on Wednesday beneath a mostly sunny sky. Winds will begin to take on a southeasterly direction, and so nighttime temperatures will once again struggle to leave the 70s.

Up Next: Thanks to the southeasterly wind shift, enough Gulf moisture will be around for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop by Thursday afternoon. Warmer, more humid conditions will hold on until a stronger cold front moves through the area Friday and early Saturday. After another round of showers and thunderstorms, a punch of crisp air will deliver a fall feel into the weekend. Specific timing of the front is not locked in yet and this does affect the details of the forecast. At this time, the WBRZ Weather Team expects clearing skies through Saturday with morning temperatures in the 60s and afternoon temperatures the 70s. For LSU and Southern fans, this could mean that jackets are needed for morning tailgates and the evening games! See below for an analysis of the situation and alternate possibilities.

The Tropics: Overall, the Atlantic Basin is not terribly troubling at this time. An area of lower pressure off the East Coast of the United States has a 40 percent chance of tropical or subtropical development through Thursday before upper level winds become unfavorable. Another system well east of Bermuda is given a 40 percent chance of development before conditions become too harsh.

THE EXPLANATION:

The weak upper level trough associated with the recent frontal passage has exited to the northeast. Unsurprisingly, the first taste of cooler temperatures and lower humidity will therefore be short lived. Winds will gradually turn to the southeast allowing onshore flow to moderate the air mass. With less morning cloud cover than Tuesday, high temperatures will surge back to above average levels on Wednesday afternoon. Due to ample dry air aloft, showers should not develop away from the coast. By Thursday, enough moisture will be established to make it feel more humid and even generate isolated showers and thunderstorms. A strong storm system will move across the nation on Friday. For the local area, an approaching cold front will force showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Frontal passage is expected to occur overnight Friday into Saturday. Timing of this boundary is important to the forecast. Should the front pass at night as it currently expected, showers will end before daybreak with a morning temperature in the 50s or 60s, followed by clearing skies and an afternoon temperature in the 70s. If the front slows at all, some showers could linger into the first half of Saturday with an early high in the 70s and steady or falling temperatures into the 60s for the afternoon. Again, this spell will be short with a return to above normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon into early next week. A few weak, fast moving systems could spread some showers across the area Monday and Tuesday.

--Josh

The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.

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