When the weather is nice, we are more prone to some negative health impacts. Several days after rain with continued sunshine result in increased allergens. Due to the high spring sun angle, the U.V. Index is very high making sunburn times in the 15-minute range. All of this nice weather has been created by a ridge of high pressure, which also results in sinking, poorly mixed air. This makes it difficult for clouds and showers to form but also allows pollutants to settle and ozone to increase. An *AIR QUALITY ALERT* has been issued for the third straight day in the Baton Rouge area. Levels are low enough that only those with breathing sensitivities such as asthma would be affected by spending longer periods outside. You can reduce emissions by driving less and refueling very early or very late in the day.  

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Sunny skies and warm conditions will continue as we start the workweek. Things will feel very much like Sunday, with high temperatures reaching into the low 80s. Winds will be out of the southeast between 5 and 10 mph, which will slowly increase humidity. Tonight will bring mild temperatures, as the southerly winds will keep lows in the 60s, and winds will stay consistent from the southeast between 5 and 10 mph.

Up Next: Thanks to an area of high pressure dipping to our southeast, a more southerly wind will take hold through the week. This will cause moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to be pushed onshore across southern Louisiana, bringing potential for an isolated afternoon shower on Tuesday and Wednesday. As we approach the weekend though, a stronger system will create severe weather across the plains before stalling out across the Gulf Coast on Saturday. As of now, at least the first half of the weekend is looking to have a lot of rain and thunderstorm activity.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level ridge will move from west to east across the forecast area. A surface high pressure system will move off the U.S. East Coast resulting in southeast winds. While a sea breeze could feasibly create a shower, the subsidence aloft due to the ridge should suppress most convection. Only a brief, isolated shower is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge and surface high will allow highs and lows to end up a couple of degrees above average. The upper ridge will strengthen over the northeastern Gulf for the second half of the week essentially eliminating any rain chance. A cold front associated with a shortwave trough will approach the area this weekend, substantially increasing rain and thunderstorms chances, especially Saturday. It is still unclear as to if this front will stall, move into the Gulf or just dissipate. Of course the latter two scenarios would result in much lower rain chances for Sunday.    

--Dr. Josh

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