The atmosphere has destabilized a bit more than expected, and it now appears possible that a few strong thunderstorms will be possible today.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The first half of your Tuesday will be unsettled. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through early afternoon. A few storms could be strong or severe with large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Forecast area rain coverage has been raised to 70 percent. Some sun may return by afternoon allowing high temperatures to top out in the mid to upper 70s once again. Overnight, expect partly cloudy skies with lows in the low 60s.   

Monitor the forecast. Active weather could make the morning commute difficult. Be sure you have a way to get alerts such as a NOAA Weather Radio or from the WBRZ Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter. Additionally, the *free* WBRZ WX App. sends push notifications to mobile devices if a watch or warning is issued for your location. Remember, a watch means “conditions are favorable, and a particular threat could develop” and a warning means that “threat is happening and you should take action immediately.” In a tornado warning, seek shelter in a low-level interior room and avoid mobile homes is possible. In a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside of any sturdy structure.

Up Next: After another mild day on Wednesday, a push of cooler air is anticipated for the end of the week. Under mostly clear skies, Thursday and Friday will bring highs in the upper 60s with lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Still, these numbers are just a touch above average for the time of year. As of now, the weekend is looking dry and warmer with highs getting back to the upper 70s.

THE SCIENCE: Fairly significant changes have been made to the short term forecast. What was looking more like “garden variety” showers and thunderstorms yesterday, has ramped up into a low-end severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northeastern half of the WBRZ Weather Forecast Area in a “slight risk” for severe storms. A fast moving shortwave trough will cross the region today allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop quickly. Strong thermodynamics will move into the area through the morning causing rapid destabilization in the atmosphere. A dry pocket in the mid-levels will help wet bulb zero heights fall during the morning as well making large hail the main possibility with a secondary damaging wind threat. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out however that threat should primarily be well east of the local area. Most of the action will be done with by early afternoon. Rain coverage is expected to be in the 70 percent range. The push of cool air will lag well behind the front until a surface high pressure across the norther tier can guide it southward Wednesday Night. A secondary “front” will cross the area with temperatures dropping about 10 degrees behind it for Thursday and Friday—though these readings will still be above average. Over the weekend, upper level ridging to return and as an area of high pressure sets up in the Eastern United States, return flow will kick back into gear. Temperatures will sail beyond average again with highs and lows a good 15 degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances are expected to increase next week, but there remains typical long-term uncertainty with the exact nature of that forthcoming storm system.

--Josh