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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Unseasonable warmth continues, changes soon

8 months 3 weeks 2 days ago Tuesday, November 01 2016 Nov 1, 2016 November 01, 2016 6:06 AM November 01, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

THE FORECAST:

For the second straight day, at 88 degrees, Baton Rouge Metro Airport registered a record high temperature. For Tuesday, the record high is 88 degrees, a mark set in 1936.

Today and Tonight: Expect another unseasonably warm afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Plenty of sun will continue and at least the humidity isn’t too bothersome. Overnight, after clear skies early, be on the lookout for patchy fog once again with lows in the low 60s. Winds will remain light and southeasterly.

Up Next: After another dry, mild Wednesday, a cold front is expected to enter the region on Thursday, crossing Early Friday. Behind this front, look for temperatures to drop back to more seasonable readings with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 50s. Northerly winds and clear skies should keep the pattern in check through Sunday. We continue to see signs of a much more potent storm system next week—be with us as details become clearer in the coming days.

The Tropics: The tropics are quiet and no development is expected this week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level ridge will begin to breakdown and slide east of the Central Gulf Coast my midweek. At the surface, highs temperatures should respond by leaving record territory, but remain above average in the mid 80s. With clear skies and light winds, lows will continue dropping back to dew points in the low 60s, meaning fog formation will be possible each morning through Wednesday. With the ridge bounced east, some clouds may finally show up in skies by mid-week and potentially limit overnight fog development moving forward. A cold front organizing in the Midwest will pick up steam and approaching the area from the northwest on Thursday. Return flow likely won’t become established enough for deep moisture and thus, this front too likely gasps through the region without producing much (if any) rain. As the associated upper level trough digs into the Southeast United States, a day or two of near or slightly above normal temperatures is expected for Friday and Saturday under mainly clear skies. By early next week, forecast models are hinting at some more significant changes. A deep trough digging into the Lower Midwest is aligned such that rain, storms and a strong cold front could cross around Midweek. Climatology would suggest this could bring not only much cooler air, but a risk of stronger thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details unfold.

--Josh

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