Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Typical trend

1 year 3 months 2 weeks ago July 07, 2015 Jul 7, 2015 Tuesday, July 07 2015 July 07, 2015 6:19 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather
By: Meteorologist Josh Eachus

The forecast goes unchanged as does the weather pattern through Thursday.


Today and tonight: Tuesday will mirror Monday with partly sunny skies and a quick warmup into the low 90s by early afternoon. Pop-up showers and storms won't be headline grabbers but can't be ruled out of the weather story either. Any that kick up will fade after dusk as temperatures ease back into the 70s overnight.

Looking ahead: Rain chances will continue to be low into Wednesday and Thursday. We'll still look for partly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. A weak upper level wave could spark a few extra showers Wednesday or Thursday Afternoon. However, by the weekend, even clouds may be harder to find, but heat will not. Some mid 90s will likely be registered on Saturday and Sunday with a heat index or "feels-like" temperature over 100.

Further ahead: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center projects above average temperatures and below average precipitation to be a trend that continues even into next week. We can expect highs in the low to mid 90s with rain chances staying near the seasonable 20-30% range. An upper ridge will continue to ride over the Southeastern United States keeping the dome of warm air overhead and the highway for showers and thunderstorms well to the north.


Forecast Discussion: The jet stream has flattened out leaving our region free of those upper disturbances that help to spark off convection. The atmosphere is still juicy so we can't rule out pop-up showers and thunderstorms as afternoon marine breezes interact with that unstable surface air. A Bermuda and Northeastern Gulf of Mexico high pressure will become established through the week with a ridge building over the Southeastern United States. Both of these factors will work against afternoon precipitation keeping rain chances low but not zero through Thursday. The one ingredient that favors some additional shower development would be an upper level wave riding the northern periphery of our heat ridge. One of these may wheel through the area Wednesday or Thursday as seen on the forecast models. By Friday, long-range models show the surface high and ridge building directly overhead moving rain chances below 10% and boosting afternoon highs into the mid 90s thanks to slightly drier air, additional sunshine and subsidence beneath the ridge.


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