Two nice, two unsettled
The week will wrap with a pair of pleasant days. Halloween looks like a rainout.
Today and Tonight: Stray clouds and showers will part for sunshine during the afternoon hours. Again thermometers will top out near 80. Overnight will be clear and seasonable with lows in the upper 50s.
A *FLOOD WARNING* continues for these rivers:
Amite @ Denham Springs: 29.6’ (flood stage is 29.0’) falling below Thursday Afternoon
Amite @ Bayou Manchac: 10.8’ (flood stage is 9.0’) cresting at 11.0’ Thursday Afternoon
Amite @ French Settlement: 4.5’ (flood stage is 4.0’) remaining steady through Thursday
Amite @ Port Vincent: 7.7’ (flood stage is 8.0’) cresting at 8.0’ Thursday Night
Tickfaw @ Holden: 15.9’ (flood stage is 15.0’) falling below Friday Morning
Tangipahoa @ Robert: 16.8’ (flood stage is 15.0’) falling below Friday Morning
Up Next: Friday will begin sunny but high clouds, ahead of the next weather-maker, are expected to move in from west to east during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will peak in the upper 70s. Trick-or-treating, that has been bumped earlier for most neighborhoods, should not have any issues. The evening and overnight hours will be cloudy, but dry, with lows stopping in the upper 60s. With highs returning to the mid 70s on Halloween, a storm system will enter the region with rain and storms becoming increasingly likely through the afternoon and evening hours. A few thunderstorms could be on the strong side with heavy rain. The Storm Prediction Center has included our region in a marginal risk for severe weather—so we’ll be watching closely for you. Showers will linger into Sunday Morning with 2-3” of rain left behind before the new week. This means the rivers could run high once again. Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday.
If you would like a closer look at the extended forecast, including the severe weather potential on Halloween, CLICK HERE, for a video briefing.
Forecast Discussion: A vigorous shortwave trough digging through the southern stream of the jet has developed a surface low in Central Texas. An associated warm front will lift northward into the Gulf South through Friday returning moisture and cloud cover to the area. Action is expected to pick up on Saturday as the trough and surface low near Louisiana. Within the warm sector of this system, rain and thunderstorms will move from west to east along the Gulf Coast through the day. The Storm Prediction Center highlights South Louisiana for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. This seems appropriate given the ample moisture and wind shear that will be in place. The limiting factor for this event will be instability, with daylong cloud cover in place. Regardless, it is not uncommon along the Gulf Coast for low instability, high shear scenarios to spin up brief tornadoes and that will be the main threat. Saturday Night and into Sunday, the surface low will lift northeast though Arkansas and into Kentucky. The trailing cold front will stretch from the low’s center into Southwest Louisiana and be in no hurry to clear the region. Thus, steady and potentially heavy rain may continue into Sunday Morning. Storm total rain tallies could be on the order of 2-3” with isolated higher amounts from heavier storms. The GFS model ends rain on Sunday Morning will the European is slower with the frontal passage and holds showers into the afternoon. Regardless, sun likely won’t return until Monday and Tuesday as a ridge builds over the region, pushing highs and lows slightly above average.
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