Posted: Sep 8, 2011 1:31 PM by Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum
Updated: Sep 8, 2011 1:31 PM
Source: WBRZ Weather Center, NHC
Tropical Storm Nate is now located about 125 miles west of Campeche, Mexico. Winds are now up to 60 mph, the pressure is 1000 mb, and it is moving very slowly to the southeast at 1 mph. The erratic east to northeast motion is expected today, followed by a slow north to northwest motion on Friday. The forecast track continues takes Nate into the West-Central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
The storm track is now forecast to move to the north verses the west like it did this morning. The reason is a trough of low pressure is going to be moving across the U.S., and it will try to pull Nate northward according to the recent spaghetti forecast model plots. However, this morning, most of the models showed this not happening. At the moment there is a huge spread in the models taking it from Central Mexico to the Northern Gulf Coast. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast track.
Hurricane Hunters will investigate this system today, and all of this data will be put into the forecast models. Once this is injested into the models, they will likely come into somewhat more agreement.
Nate is also currently located in an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. The shear is forecast to lessen during the next day or so which should allow for gradual strengthening. In a few days, southwesterly shear is expected to increase, and along with drier low-to mid-level air is forecast to slow the intensification process. This would make Nate a weak Category 1 Hurricane over the weekend in the Western Gulf.
Due to the erratic path of Nate, we will need to keep an eye on it as it could try to move/drift to the north even more. It is too far out to make an exact landfall location at this time. Please do not get too worried about Nate right now. We will contiue to watch it, and let you know if there are any significant changes.
To track to the storm at home, go to WBRZ's Hurricane Center Page: http://www.wbrz.com/hurricane-center/
Be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast for Nate on WBRZ, WBRZ.com, Cable Channel 18, Facebook and Twitter.