A cold front will approach the area on Thursday helping to kick out additional showers and thunderstorms. This will serve as that "trigger" that we have been lacking over the last few days. No significant changes to temperatures or humidity are expected behind the front
Today and Tonight: Thursday will see skies clouding up much quicker than previous days as an approaching cold front taps into a warm, humid, unstable air mass. Highs will try to top out in the mid 80s around midday. Showers and thunderstorms will be developing throughout the day with scattered to widespread action likely by afternoon. As has been the case over the last few days, a storm or two could turn strong with gusty wind and downpours. Overnight, we'll see activity gradually dissipating with lows getting into the middle 60s behind that front.
Looking Ahead: Friday may start off with just a touch less humidity than previous days on account of a weak cold front. However, the afternoon will be warm with a high in the mid 80s. With a weakening front locked up on the Gulf Coast afternoon showers and storms will again be a possibility, especially south of the Interstates. For the Memorial Day Weekend, steam will return in full. Saturday is the best bet to stay dry, and while no washouts are foreseen, prepare to do some afternoon shower dodging along with the burger flipping.
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Forecast Discussion: A weak upper level trough in the Northeastern United States is helping to nudge a cold front through the region. This front will aid with the low-level convergence and the lift needed to spark off additional showers and thunderstorms. A disturbance in the upper levels later Thursday may also enhance convection. With the front positioned over the region, it may take some time to shut everything down on Thursday Night, even with the loss of heating. By Friday, the front will stall on the Louisiana Coast but in residing there will help to squeeze out a few more showers and storms on Friday, especially in coastal locations. Over the weekend, the front will disintegrate and the southerly flow of steam will return. A weak ridge in the Southeast U.S. may stall the convective action for a day meaning Saturday is out best bet to stay entirely dry. Otherwise, the holiday weekend will be warm and humid with highs near 90° and lows near 70°. There won't be any true triggering mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms other than marine breezes and daytime warmth so only isolated convection is expected through Sunday. A stronger trough approaching from the west on Monday may increase the rain spread.
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