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Trending colder, rain returns tomorrow night

8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago Wednesday, January 04 2017 Jan 4, 2017 January 04, 2017 6:11 AM January 04, 2017 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

As colder air spills into the region, another storm system organizes to bring rain (and possibly more) to the area Thursday Night into Saturday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies with much cooler temperatures. Northerly winds will mean that morning readings in the mid 50s won’t move much farther than 60 degrees for the afternoon high. Overnight will bring mostly clear skies, light winds and a low temperature near 40 degrees.   

Up Next: On Thursday, temperatures will remain below average as clouds return to the area. Showers are expected to return as early as Thursday Evening and persist through Friday with another quarter to half inch of rain possible. Temperatures will be steady or falling through the 40s on Friday, ending up just above freezing on Saturday Morning. At this time, there appears to be a slim possibility that a few sleet pellets could mix in north of a New Roads to McComb line before rain ends Early Saturday Morning. However, no impacts are expected due to wintry weather. For more, follow WBRZ weather on Facebook and Twitter to get the latest updates as new information becomes available through the day.

THE SCIENCE: A cold front is pushing through the area today allowing a much cooler air mass to spill into the region. Some low level moisture trapped near the front may lead to mostly cloudy skies through the day but the more sensible change will be in temperatures. While the morning starts off similar to Tuesday with readings in the 50s, little upward moderation is expected as winds shift northerly. Tranquil weather will continue through Thursday Afternoon as the front sags southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A deepening upper level trough across the Eastern United States will continue to hold temperatures down through the week. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough in the southern stream will move into the region Friday. A surface low will develop in response to this upper energy and track from the South Texas Coast northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle by Saturday. Forecast models are in good agreement that rain showers will overspread the area Early Friday Morning and lingering into Early Saturday Morning, with the steadiest period occurring on Friday Afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain steady or fall through Friday as cold air advection takes place on the northern side of the surface low moving south of Louisiana. The main forecast challenge is with regard to the possibility of frozen precipitation. At this time, both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a brief transition to a wintry mix overnight Friday before precipitation ends. This is a fairly unfounded proposition from both models which wield atmospheric profiles unsupportive of frozen precipitation. Soundings show a warm layer exceeding 3 degrees Celsius suggesting complete melting of any frozen precipitation, taking snow out of the equation. With a surface temperature expected to stay above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, freezing rain should not be a concern either. If anything, and that is a major if, a lower level pocket of cold air could feasibly advance far enough south to support a few sleet pellets on a line along and north of New Roads to McComb. The remainder of the weekend will be drier but remain chilly with some upper 20s possible Saturday and Sunday Night.  

--Josh

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