Posted: Jul 31, 2014 5:58 AM by Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III
Forecast Discussion: The cold front that swept humidity out for the region on Tuesday has stalled in the Gulf of Mexico. On its tail end a surface low pressure system is strengthening in Texas while an upper level trough of low pressure and cooler air is diving in the Southeast. The expectation s that all system will keep enough proximity from the local area today, meaning some sunshine is expected while humidity keeps out of the oppressive range. By Friday Morning however, the stalled front will move north as a warm front on Friday while the trough and low pressure system approach South Louisiana. These features will act in accordance to return humidity and produce scattered shower and thunderstorms activity. The forecast for Friday and Saturday has improved with partly to mostly cloudy skies giving way to dodgy shower action. Meanwhile, forecast models pass the low directly overhead on Sunday indicating a longer duration period of rain. Any thunderstorms through the weekend could produce heavy rain.
Today and Tonight: Skies will feature and increase in cloud cover but should not give way too much in the way of precipitation. An isolated shower isn't impossible, but not likely either. Highs will nudge up a touch from Wednesday to near 90°. Under mostly cloudy skies, a spotty shower is possible tonight with lows getting back into the low 70s and the mugginess creeping back.
Your Weekend: A fairly unsettled period is expected Friday through Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be especially likely during the afternoon hours as peak daytime heating aids in the triggering of said activity. At this time, no full washouts are expected, but plan to dodge showers and storms during your outdoor plans this weekend. It will be a bit more humid but highs will stay just a touch below average.
The Tropics: A tropical wave is producing disorganized shower activity approximately 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. We're seeing a little more shower activity since yesterday. This system is worth watching over the next 5 days as it encounters weaker upper level winds and slightly warmer waters. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60% chance of development over the next two days.
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