Tracking showers once again as we warm up
While showers are in the forecast to end the week, nothing significant is expected until the weekend.
As temperatures rise through Saturday, Louisiana State Climatologist Barry Keim points out several Louisiana cities have experienced their warmest observations on record from January 1st through this past Tuesday--so there's that. These include Shreveport, Alexandria, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, and Slidell.
Today and Tonight: Just like that, mostly cloudy skies, southerly breezes and isolated showers are back in the picture. High temperatures will make it into the mid 70s. As far as the showers go, only about 30 percent coverage is expected today, and any that do get going should be short lived. Overnight will be mostly cloudy and patchy fog is possible. Lows will be in the low 60s.
Up Next: With a weak cold front stalling out north, scattered showers and thunderstorms will roll into the area Friday. A stronger system will bring rain and thunderstorms this weekend—likely Late Saturday into Sunday. Cooler temperatures will follow as clocks spring forward on Sunday. Note that while rain chances are in the forecast Thursday through Saturday, a constant rain is not expected and there will be some dry time for outdoor activities.
THE SCIENCE: As southerly winds return on Thursday, low level moisture may lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm but a lack of any real forcing mechanism should mean that most locations remain dry. A weak cold front approaching from the north will provide some lift and bring slightly greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms on Friday. As a constant rain is not expected, thermometers will respond to the more mild and moist air mass by climbing into the upper 70s through Saturday. A more vigorous shortwave trough approaches on Saturday Evening and higher dew points and temperatures should lead to more robust rain coverage and perhaps more thunderstorms as well. Another front moving in from the west will enhance development also. At this time, forecast models are accounting for higher precipitation totals, on the order of 1-2”, with the most active time period currently pegged for Saturday Night. It is a bit too early to tell if some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe. The cold front should be nudged east b Sunday as a longwave trough settles into the Eastern United States allowing a return to near normal temperatures of 70/50 through early next week.
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