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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Three Hs in play, looking for a cooling shower

8 months 4 days 1 hour ago July 21, 2016 Jul 21, 2016 Thursday, July 21 2016 July 21, 2016 5:40 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The forecast will hold steady into Saturday. By Sunday, the local area may notice a slight drop off in high temperatures.

Today and Tonight: Your Thursday will be hazy, hot and humid with a high of 95 degrees. Heat indices will top out near 105 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny with a hit-or-miss shower. Overnight will be mostly clear and stuffy with lows in the upper 70s. 

Up Next:  A stubborn ridge of high pressure is holding a very warm bubble of air across the central plains, and to a lesser extent, Louisiana. Regardless, expect it to be fairly hot tomorrow as well. Shower chances are in the forecast, but only a few "bubblers" are expected. Most of us will stay dry. Not much changes over the next seven days, but a marginally better chance of a shower will be noted on Sunday and Monday which could bring temperatures back to normal, but overall don't expect anything too different--not a surprise in July.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  We continue watch an upper level ridge which has been the culprit for persistent heat and slightly less storm action in the local area. This ridge is centered near the Texas/Oklahoma border and will remain expanded across the entire southern half of the country into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly low due to the "lid" this feature places on the atmosphere. Rain coverage will remain in the 20 percent range. Most convection will continue to occur in the late morning to early afternoon. It is worth pointing out that dew points starting the day in the mid 70s will fall into the lower 70s on account of daytime mixing. The timing of rising temps and falling dewpoints will likely keep heat indices just below the 108 heat advisory criteria on Thursday and Friday. The ridge will begin to weaken by Sunday and become more of a zonal flow as a northern stream trough races along the US/Canada border. As a result, the pattern will go back to normal with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low 70s and more isolated to scattered daily convection.

--Josh

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