While Tuesday was slightly more active than previous days, there will be plenty more showers and thunderstorms to go around this week. Temperatures will not vary much, only missing forecast highs where rain kicks out early.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another sunny morning will be followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms breaking out from midday into the afternoon. Given this timeline, most locations should be able to reach about 92 degrees. Winds will continue to be light and southeasterly keeping plenty of humidity in place. Overnight, activity will ease with low temperatures going into the mid 70s.  

Up Next: A surface high pressure system will remain parked over the Carolinas resulting in continued southeasterly wind flow across the Gulf and inland. This setup will provide ample moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoons. Looking ahead to this weekend, the strongest signal is that the same late summer weather pattern will continue, meaning Sunday watch parties and Labor Day plans will be fine, just needing to dodge a passing shower or thunderstorm.

Football Is Back: For those making a trek to Dallas, the key weather feature will be heat. The early outlook for northeast Texas calls for dry conditions with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Southern gets the party started one day early in Fort Worth and unfortunately that is a midday, outdoor game at TCU where temperatures could push triple digits. Rain is not expected to be an issue in northeast Texas either day.

There is now a "medium" (50%) chance of formation by a tropical wave set to move off the African Coast. pic.twitter.com/Wc1kgDRfdS

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— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) August 29, 2018

The Tropics: A wave moving off the African Coast will have a shot at some development near the Cabo Verde Islands over the weekend into next week. Right now, the National Hurricane Center assigns this region a 50 percent chance of formation. There are some signs that the basin may awaken as we near the peak of the season in Mid-September. Some forecast models have been hinting at development closer to home next week, but buyer beware! More on those scenarios below and RIGHT HERE.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level ridge of high pressure that was centered over the Appalachian Mountains is shifting east and moving into the western Atlantic Ocean. It extended well west across the southern United States to Arizona. A weak trough moving across the center of the country will break the ridge into two, leaving the local forecast area in a shear axis between the two ridges. This will generally be the upper level pattern in place through this weekend. Therefore, minimal subsidence will be around to inhibit convective development. Deep layer Gulf moisture will continue to stream in from the southeast with precipitable water or available moisture in the atmosphere well above average for the time of year. Measurable rain coverage has been on the order of 40 to 60 percent, and that should remain consistent in the short term. In terms of temperatures, outside of storm influences, highs should be near average each day. Over the weekend, a quick moving trough crossing the norther Gulf from east to west may enhance available moisture and storm development. Increased rain coverage has been noted on the 7-Day forecast to reflect this. Downpours will remain possible but storms should have enough forward motion to prevent major flooding issues. Not much will change next week. What may need to be watched, however, is some form of tropical activity. Forecast models have been hinting at something near the central Gulf Coast, inconsistently for a few days. Confidence remains low in this system as run to run solutions have been inconsistent in terms of location, intensity, and even existence at all of anything tropical. This is to be expected given the time of year so we should continue to pay attention as usual.

--Dr. Josh

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