The Heat Continues
Today and Tonight: The heat is on….again… Warming up quickly through the day under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be reaching around 95°, with heat index values in the triple digits by 11AM and hovering around 103° through the peak afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of a spotty shower or rogue storm that may briefly cool things down, but chances are slim. Clouds will be breaking this evening, leading to an overnight low of 74° with calming winds out of the southeast.
Up Next: Showers set to increase and scatter as we proceed into the weekend, as a low pressure toward the southwest continues to push moisture onshore. Heat index values will also be elevated through the weekend.
The tropics have calmed down this week, as we witnessed all hurricanes and tropical storms degrade and break up. We are monitoring two waves that have a potential for tropical development.
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a small but concentrated area of thunderstorms about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some additional development is possible today before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation starting tonight and continuing through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is expecting a low chance of development of only 20% over the next 5 days.
A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form over the weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is expecting a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.
There is a low pressure center west of Brownsvillle, Texas that will attempt to push moisture onshore through the day today and provide isolated showers and storms through the afternoon. These will be very spotty, as a much stronger high pressure to our northeast into Tennessee is keeping sinking air in our proximity. The Texan low will break up over the next 24 hours as it moves into the Gulf, and the high will retreat toward the northeast. This movement will open the door to a low pressure to travel across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico into the week, helping to provide more scattered showers and storms through the weekend and into the workweek. This system eventually gets pulled to the northeast and up the Appalachians Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a driving cold front that is forecast to break into the Gulf late in the week. The increase of showers over the next 7 days will help to slowly cool temperatures near average by Wednesday, but the cold front will provide plunging temperatures into the low 80s late in the week. We could experience low temperatures breaking into the 60s by next Friday.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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