Temps up, humidity up
The next two days will feature much more sun than the last few but will also be much warmer and more humid.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday and Wednesday should shape up to be nearly identical. Look for a pair of partly sunny afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As far as pop-up showers go-they appear unlikely but aren't impossible for coastal locations where lake and sea breezes could generate something. The nights will be still and sticky with just a few clouds, patchy fog and lows in the upper 60s.
Looking Ahead: By Thursday, the pattern will begin to change as a cold front moves into the region. At this time, it looks as though the first half of Thursday will warm up quickly with highs running for the mid 80s again. Meanwhile, humidity will remain in place. By afternoon, there may be enough energy in the region to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Overnight into Friday, clouds will lower and thicken and with the arrival of our slow-moving front, Friday looks unsettled with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The pattern looks no friendlier heading into the weekend. We'll keep you posted as forecast details become clearer.
Forecast Discussion: A warm front now well to the north, the Gulf of Mexico is "open for business" and deep southerly flow is transporting plenty of warm and moist air into the region. However, weak upper-level ridging will likely be just enough to cap off the atmosphere and keep a lid on shower and storm development over the next few days. Still, with the unstable surface air plus lake and sea breezes, coastal showers aren't completely impossible on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, the pattern will begin to shift as a cold front associated with a strong upper level storm system pulls into the region. Late in the afternoon, a few showers and storms may develop well ahead of the front. Overall through, Friday appears to be the most threatening day of the week. All will depend on the position of the front. Should the front stay farther north, severe weather may be in the cards. Should the front slip south sooner, a heavy rain event could be more likely. As we've reached the warm season, each successive front has more and more difficulty reaching "the pond" and therefore we enter scenarios with stalled fronts and deep southerly flow that are favorable for training storms and flooding events. In most cases, we need an upper level piece of energy to enhance these events and they are difficult to detect and pinpoint until 24 hours out. The spring is one of our more unpredictable times of the year, especially many days in advance-stay in touch with the forecast as it gets closer.
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