Rain coverage goes even lower on Tuesday with more sunshine and hotter afternoon temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Highs are forecast to be in the mid 90s, and with plenty of humidity, feels-like temperatures will make it beyond 100 degrees. Not to rule out a stray shower, but in all likelihood any development will hug coastal areas. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low in the mid 70s.  

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will be quite hot, even for Late August. Mostly sunny skies will help to promote above average high temperatures in the mid 90s. Several hours of the afternoon may have heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. Keep hydration and minimal exertion in mind while rebuilding efforts continue. Lows will stay in the mid 70s. Rain chances will stay very low. Isolated showers and average temperatures will return for the weekend.        

The Tropics: As of 4am Tuesday, there were four active areas being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on three systems.

Tropical Depression Nine is in the East Central Gulf of Mexico with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb and maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Moving to the west at 7mph, the system is expected to strengthen achieving tropical storm status. While it may be painstaking to watch lingering in the Central Gulf of Mexico, a turn to the northeast and the Florida Coast is anticipated later Tuesday. Heavy rain and wind are expected in Florida with a landfall occurring Thursday Morning. For Louisiana, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday as tides may run up to 2 feet above normal.

Tropical Depression Eight is east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with a minimum central pressure of 1010mb and maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Moving to the northwest at 6mph, the system will take a northward turn later Tuesday and possibly strengthen into a tropical storm. Rain and wind are anticipated in Eastern North Carolina.

Hurricane Gaston is churning in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 100mph. The storm will move east, northeast and out to sea, speeding up and weakening by the end of the week.

Invest 92L is the latest tropical wave that has pushed off of the African Coast. The cluster of showers and thunderstorms will meet favorable conditions over the next five days and is given a 40 percent chance of further development. Given a track across the South Central Atlantic Basin, the United States will need to monitor the progress of this wave.

Certainly continue to monitor tropical forecasts as the peak of hurricane season nears. Take this time to review hurricane preparedness and have your game plan installed should it be needed.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to progress west across the United States through the end of the week. Coincidentally, a trough will develop along the Eastern United States Coast and these two features will combine to deflect Tropical Depression Nine away from the area. Still, rough seas may be found over the coastal waters as winds pick up in response to the close transit of that system—tides may run two feet above normal. As for local weather, the upper ridge will lead to strong subsidence, or sinking air aloft, thus causing the atmosphere in the mid and upper levels to dry and warm. This should produce a fairly strong temperature inversion in the mid-levels. This inversion will greatly reduce the amount of instability in the atmosphere and stunt cloud development. Rain coverage will be fairly low across northern locations with better daily chances south of I-10. Precipitable water values will come down meaning downpours won’t be quite as heavy. High temperatures will rise into the middle 90s each day due to the combination of subsidence and strong solar insolation. With dewpoints lingering in the lower 70s at the surface, heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible through Thursday. By Friday, a backdoor cold front may squeak into the area. This would likely return at least isolated showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. Of note, a few models have the front fall apart over the region, while others send it through—which could result in a little lower humidity. We’ll have to wait and see how that pans out. 

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