After a rainy spell Saturday through Tuesday, sunshine is back for a few days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Sun returns! Any fog early will be replaced blue sky during the afternoon. Drier air will be in place, and with the sunshine, thermometers will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. A weak front zipping by the area could bring a passing shower during the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with a low in the low 60s.  

A *FLOOD WARNING* continues for these rivers:

Amite @ Denham Springs: 30.8’ (flood stage is 29.0’) cresting at 31.5’ Wed. Afternoon

Amite @ Bayou Manchac: 7.2’ (flood stage is 9.0’) cresting at 10.5’ Thu. Afternoon

Amite @ French Settlement: 4.6’ (flood stage is 4.0’) cresting at 5.0’ Wed. Morning

Amite @ Maurepas: 4.8’ (flood stage is 4.0’) crested and falling below by Wed. Morning

Comite @ Joor Road: 22.1’ (flood stage is 20.0’) crested and falling below by Wed. Morning

Tickfaw @ Holden: 14.5’ (flood stage is 15.0’) cresting at 17.9’ Wed. Afternoon

Tickfaw @ Montpelier: 13.8’ (flood stage is 13.0’) crested and falling below by Wed. Morning

Tangipahoa @ Robert: 16.5’ (flood stage is 15.0’) cresting at 17.0’ Wed. Morning

Looking Ahead: The possibility for a passing shower won’t last far beyond dawn Thursday. Skies will clear and allow a high temperature in the upper 70s. Friday will begin with clear skies and a temperature around 60° followed by an afternoon high in the upper 70s. High clouds will begin to develop late in the day. Halloween weekend, the weather will again turn unsettled (click the link for much more). A storm system approaching from the west will spread clouds, rain and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday. Some of the storms could be strong and downpours are a possibility as well. Rain looks to linger on Sunday. Both days, highs will be in the mid 70s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. By Monday, another 2-4” of rain may be down.

Weeks of dry weather have given way to big rain amounts-- with more to come. Meteorologist Josh Eachus explains how El Nino plays a role in the wholesale changes. READ HERE.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A shortwave trough sliding through the polar front jet stream over the northern third of the country will send a weak front through the area Wednesday Night. Forecast models suggest there is enough push to squeeze out a shower or two, and thus we’ll carry 10-20% PoPs. Behind that, a pair of dry days is in the forecast before a stronger shortwave pulsing through the sub-tropical jet stream stirs up more unsettled weather for the weekend. The wave will induce cyclogenesis over Texas with a warm front pulling northward into the Gulf South on Saturday. As the region enters the warm sector of this storm system, showers and thunderstorms will break out. Given the positions of the storm system and the forecast strength of the jet stream, some of these could be strong, though it is too early to pinpoint any specific threats. Additionally, as the surface low and trailing cold front approach the area, continuing rounds of rain could leave another 2-4” of precipitation across the area through Sunday. If the ECMWF model has its way—lingering showers could even continue into Monday. A ridge will build in beyond that, sending temperatures warmer than average into Early November.

 --Josh

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