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1 year 2 months 3 weeks ago October 21, 2015 Oct 21, 2015 Wednesday, October 21 2015 October 21, 2015 5:51 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Thermometers have bounced back to near or above average readings and some slow warming will continue for the reminder of the week. Meanwhile, away from the coast, rain shower chances will be very low.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The standard is maintained into Wednesday. Expect sunshine with just a few clouds pulsing up in the afternoon hours. Closer to the coast, there may be just enough moisture for a brief shower, but nothing significant to impact the drought. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s and you might begin to notice some returning humidity. Overnight, we’ll have mostly clear skies with a low in the mid 60s.

Looking Ahead: The week will end with a pair of days very similar to Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoons will be partly sunny with little more than a stray spritz possible in the coastal parishes. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Nights are expected to bring mostly clear skies but some mugginess will keep lows in the upper 60s. While the exact timing remains unclear, there is greater confidence that a rain event will now hold off until at least Sunday—which is fortunate for the many outdoor activities scheduled during the first half of this weekend.


As we continue to watch the next rain-maker, check out Meteorologist Josh Eachus on Facebook and Twitter for a detailed video briefing and the science behind the forecast.


 

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A weak ridge is stationed over the Gulf of Mexico while a surface high pressure is centered near North Carolina. The thicker column of air and southeasterly surface wind flow will promote slightly above average temperatures with a bit of humidity through Friday. The onshore flow could also carry just enough moisture to stimulate a shower—particularly in coastal locations—but nothing widespread or significant. The pattern becomes much more active this weekend. An upper trough swinging through the Midwest with an associated surface cold front will approach the region. In the Gulf of Mexico, a weak low will spin up off of the South Texas Coast. Forecast models do not display much precipitation on Saturday—supported by the fact that ideal forcing will remain west of the area. Still, an increase of clouds is noted and a stray shower or storm can’t be ruled out. By Sunday, models show the 500mb flow becoming much more agitated over Louisiana as the cold front settles southeastward into the area. That combination should lead to increasing rain coverage throughout the day. By Monday, the trough will be weakening over the region as the cold front very slowly pushes through. At this time, it appears as though the front will draw in some additional moisture from the weak Gulf low, lending to an additional period of rain with some possibly lingering as late as Tuesday. The forecast models have shown rain arriving and leaving later and later with each consecutive run, inspiring little confidence in the forecast right now. With all of that being said, we’ll monitor the trends and likely be updating the timing and details of this storm system as we get closer.      

 --Josh

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