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Summer standards: heat, pop-up showers, tropical waves

4 months 1 week 5 hours ago July 29, 2016 Jul 29, 2016 Friday, July 29 2016 July 29, 2016 5:49 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Wrapping up the final week of July, typical summer weather can be expected.     

Today and Tonight: Friday will offer more early sunshine and a quickly climbing temperature into the low 90s. Humidity won’t change. By the afternoon, clouds will bubble up with a few expected to produce a shower or thunderstorm—especially south of the interstates. Overall, forecast area rain coverage will remain in the “isolated” category. What action does get going will dissipate overnight with mostly clear skies and a low returning to the middle 70s.

Up Next:  Saturday may bring slightly better rain chances on account of a trough swinging by to the north. It does not look like a washout however; a few afternoon activities may have to briefly break inside if lightning is nearby. Also, the added action will warrant shaving a degree or two from the forecast high but still look for thermometers in the low 90s. After starting off in the mid 70s, Sunday will be fairly similar in temperature, shower coverage and timing. By the middle of next week, a slightly drier and warmer trend may emerge.         

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Midway between the African Coast and Leeward Islands is Invest 97L. This system may slowly grow as it brings showers and wind to Central Atlantic this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. Further east is Invest 96L, a slightly more organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms. The NHC forecasts a 50 percent chance of further development for this system through the weekend, before a harsher environment is encountered. Many obstacles are foreseen for both waves. With both being so far away from the U.S., there is no cause for concern at this time—just something to watch.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The upper-level weakness between two persistent ridges is less pronounced today. As a result, shower and thunderstorm development is expected to remain limited—and in the isolated category. Over the weekend, a weak trough axis will swing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley providing some additional uplift to the region and assisting in convective development. As a result, we’ll nudge rain coverage into the scattered category for Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Most action will occur after midday peak heat is reached and better coverage may in fact be met for northern locations closer to that trough axis. Moving into next week, forecast models are showing a ridge protruding further and further east over the forecast area. At the surface, WPC places a weak high over Southeast Louisiana. This combo would lend to a slightly drier and slightly warmer than average outcome and surface quantitative precipitation forecasts are trending down as well. We’ll watch for those trends over the weekend, but any perceptible changes to the local weather will be very subtle through the period.       

--Josh

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