You may have noticed that showers and thunderstorms were more “isolated” on radar Monday. That trend will continue this week. Certainly there aren’t big changes to the pattern in July and August, rather some very subtle shifts that we’re able to point out, perhaps more easily than we can actually notice outside!

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will be partly sunny, hot and humid. High temperatures will make it into the mid 90s with very little wind. Isolated showers and storms aren’t out of the questions but should be fairly limited—to coastal locations. At night, skies will clear with lows in the mid 70s.   

Up Next:  Wednesday through Friday will offer a similar forecast. For this week, the slight difference is that while pop-up showers and storms remain possible, they won’t affect many locations on a given day. As a result, the area will gather more sunshine and high temperatures will make it a degree or two warmer than average. With higher temperatures and fewer cooling showers, afternoon “feels-like” temperatures will be back in the low 100s. The National Weather Service may have to issue heat advisories later this week.   

The Tropics: The tropics remain inactive after an above average June. No development is expected into the next several days in the Gulf, Atlantic, or Caribbean.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A well-established ridge over the Central United States will dominate the country through the week. This “heat ridge” will be responsible for much compressional warming and capping of the atmosphere meaning lesser shower and thunderstorm action and thus higher temperatures. With unchanging humidity and more persistent sun, the local area may expect heat indices in the low hundreds for a longer duration during the afternoon hours. Borderline heat advisory criteria will be met but may not be issued as such heat has already been dealt with this season. As for showers and thunderstorms, any action should be fairly low topped beneath the broad ridge and likely limited to coastal areas where two processes will be underway. First these locations will be more on the periphery of the ridge, open to a few waves of energy spinning through the mean flow. Secondly, added moisture and marine breezes could help to initiate convection. The same marine breezes will attempt to blow storms inland but daily action will tend to stay south of the interstates.  

--Josh

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