Big temperatures changes are right around the corner.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will be sunny and warm with highs in the low 80s and light south winds. Overnight will be clear and calm with lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: Clouds will begin to increase Friday Afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the area. Given the current timing, expect a few showers on Friday Night as the front passes—possibly even early enough that a few high school football playoff games could get wet. By Saturday Morning, the area will be clearing out with temperatures back into the low 50s. Brisk northerly winds of 10-15mph will be bringing cool air into the region through the day. Despite sunshine, highs likely won’t get beyond the low 60s. Football fans can expect a blustery feel in the stadiums, especially Southern with a later kickoff. Don’t be surprised by a wind chill in the mid 40s by the end of that game! Temperatures will continue dropping, bottoming out in the upper 30s Sunday Morning! Afternoon highs will be struggling to leave the 50s. Expect another cold start to Monday before temperatures rebound to average.

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure producing showers and thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean Sea may become a tropical depression in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center gives this low an 80 percent chance of further development. However, the system poses no threat to the United States.

THE SCIENCE:

A 500mb ride axis will traverse the region Thursday, bringing another afternoon of sunshine and warmer than average temperatures. As an associated surface high translates to the Carolinas on Friday, southeasterly wind flow will continue to promote warmer than average temperatures. A strong storm system in the Midwest and associated cold front will begin to approach the area Friday Afternoon. With this, an increase in cloud cover is expected from west to east across the area by Friday Evening. At this time, forecast models are suggesting that a line of showers and perhaps a few imbedded thunderstorms, immediately along the boundary, will move through the region on Friday Night with the front crossing before dawn Saturday. The current timing would mean two things. First, *if* the system can produce any showers, they would likely occur overnight and not interfere with any Saturday events. Second, temperatures would begin to tumble sooner, making Saturday Afternoon cool and breezy to even blustery and cold in the evening. A much colder air mass will spill into the region by Sunday Morning with low temperatures possibly achieving the upper 30s for the first time this fall season. Highs will struggle to make 60 degrees on Sunday with followed by the mid 30s on Monday Morning. Brief moderation of temperatures is expected early next before the next front crosses around Thanksgiving.  

--Josh

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