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Stormy week even by Louisiana standards

11 months 1 week 6 days ago Monday, August 08 2016 Aug 8, 2016 August 08, 2016 5:46 AM August 08, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

We're entering somewhat of a rainy pattern this week amplified by some tropical moisture along the eastern Gulf Coast, near Florida. 

Today and Tonight: For Monday, expect more clouds than sun, but as a bonus, our high temperatures drop to the lower 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again pegged for the afternoon. At night, action will gradually ease with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  Moving forward, not much else changes in the forecast, however some days will hold a slightly better chance of rain than others. It looks like we could even have some highs in the 80s by next weekend. In the tropics, that plume of tropical moisture will continue northward across Florida, and likely out into the Atlantic Ocean. Another disturbance has been under our watch, but development is unlikely as it moves near The Bahamas and likely back out to sea.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The forecast will be difficult this week-- especially with regard to how much rain the area receives. A disturbance in the Gulf, once being watched for tropical development and now not, will continue to instigate a wet pattern. The atmosphere will stay juicy with precipitable water values exceeding 2" through the week. Meanwhile a mid-level trough will spin nearly stationary in the Northeast Gulf with loves of energy pinwheeling about. Couple that with a few pockets of upper divergence and daytime heating and land areas should see good bursts of convection each day. Of course as is typical this time of year, storms will bring heavy rain and frequent lightning. With the added cloud cover and rain high temperatures will be back toward average in the low 90s although the few points will stay in the mid 70s keeping humidity high. With a later onset of showers and storms inland, some heat indices in the low 100s may still be achieved. From midweek and beyond, we'll await the evolution of the upper disturbance over the Gulf. Models continue to struggle and disagree with each other on how fast the system moves west, how far west, and how strong. With that piece of energy nosing westward by late week, rain coverage may in fact increase which could lead to a prolonged period of bouts with heavy rain, possibly creating some flash flooding-- especially south and east of Baton Rouge. A general 2-5" gradient from west to east is a good conservative rain estimate range for now. 

--Josh

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