THE FORECAST: Today and Tonight: Your wrap to the week will have more clouds than sun. Still, high temperatures will be getting into the mid 80s before a disturbance kicks out showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. At this time, there is no significant threat for severe storms, though downpours will be possible with any stronger business that develops. Some of the shower and storms may linger into the evening before activity fades overnight. Lows will hover around 70°. Looking Ahead: The weekend weather will be unsettled. While each day will allow some sunshine, that will only be an ingredient that enhances the development of pop-up showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours. At this time, Saturday appears to feature a slightly better chance for showers and storms that Sunday—with about half of the region picking up rain. Geographically speaking, no one spot stands a greater chance than another. Each day highs will reach the mid 80s with lows near 70°. The active pattern will also continue next week.
THE SCIENCE: Forecast Discussion: An upper wave passing to our northwest will tap into the warm and humid Gulf air in place and trigger showers and thunderstorms for Friday. The meat of this wave will remain well north of the area, so expect the highest rain chances along and north of I-10 with lesser chances closer to the coast. Into the weekend, forcing mechanisms will be fewer and farther between but daytime warmth and the marine breezes should be enough to spark off afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Forecast models hint at Saturday featuring higher coverage than Sunday, but we’ll need to monitor the fine details here on a day-to-day basis. Don’t look for much change in the long term pattern—showers and thunderstorms look to stay in the picture (at least during the afternoons) through mid-week.
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