Another unsettled week is ahead with the best chance of showers and storms coming today.
Today and Tonight: Another warm and steamy day is ahead with temperatures shooting into the middle 80s by noon time. Skies will bubble up with clouds as showers and storms begin to develop. High resolution forecast models are suggesting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving from WNW. to ESE. through the region between about 3pm and 8pm. Since there is good agreement amongst the models, don't be surprised if the late commute is a little messy. Any showers and storms could produce gusty wind, downpours and a lot of lightning. As the daytime heat wanes so too will showers and storms with most of the action shutting down by midnight. Lows will be in the low 70s.
Looking Ahead: Tuesday through Thursday we can expect warm and humid conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. A weak front will settle over the region and fall apart but will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms. As has been the drill, these will be primarily driven by afternoon warmth and thus will be the timing.
Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough is pushing into the Eastern United States and dragging a cold front through the Midwest and to the east as well. A disturbance moving through the basin of this trough will help to develop showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf South on Monday. There is plenty of warmth and humidity available to sustain showers and storms but few other ingredients are available to indicate a widespread severe threat. However, Saturday Night was a perfect example as to why we can't turn our back on a storm-if even only the pop-up summertime variety. The RPM and HRRR models are in agreement that a line of showers and thunderstorms will move from WNW to ESE through SE. LA. and S. Miss. during the later afternoon and evening hours. Within this line, we could certainly find some gusty winds, downpours and a lot of lightning. Over the next few days a weak front will settle into the area and begin to fall apart but still will be able to work with daytime warmth to fire off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, we'll likely see rain coverage start to slacken off a little bit.
Stay connected with me... share your thoughts!