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Still clear as thermometers return to average

8 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago March 22, 2016 Mar 22, 2016 Tuesday, March 22 2016 March 22, 2016 5:50 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

A pair of dry days is anticipated before a fast-moving front pushes across the Gulf Coast on Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday Afternoon, thermometers will return to “that’s more like it” territory. More sunshine is on the way aiding an afternoon high back to 70 degrees. Winds will be southerly at 5-10mph. Compared to the last few, a big difference will be felt on Tuesday Night. Southerly wind will keep lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: Clouds will increase on Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s. A cold front is pegged to cross on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast. At this time, while widespread severe weather isn’t expected, we can’t rule out one or two strong storms. The day doesn’t look like a washout, rather a line of showers and thunderstorms crossing at once. The area will clear and cool once again for Friday with sun returning and highs back into the upper 60s.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An area of surface high pressure will position  off of the Southeast U.S. Coast through Wednesday setting the stage for return flow and thus milder temperatures. A shortwave working through the Midwestern U.S. will induce cyclogenesis across the Great Plains on Wednesday. That storm system will send a cold front through the Gulf Coast on Thursday. At this time, forecast models are in pretty good agreement on a midday passage. There should be a fair amount of moisture and instability in place that a few strong storms can’t be ruled out—but most of the action should stay north where better dynamics are in place. Model quantitative precipitation forecasts are not all that impressive and the most likely mode at this point seems to be a line of showers and storms ahead of the front. The trough and front will be progressive, darting east by Friday as another surface high moves into the Midwest returning slightly below average temperatures. There are quite a few questions as to how Easter Weekend will unfold. The GFS is currently bringing our Thursday front back to the north with rain developing along the boundary as early as Saturday Morning. The ECMWF and GEM currently hold off until Sunday Morning with regard to rain. The GFS also develops a much deeper low along the stalled front than its counterparts.

--Josh

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