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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Staying warm, getting wetter

6 months 3 days 20 hours ago Monday, January 16 2017 Jan 16, 2017 January 16, 2017 5:50 AM January 16, 2017 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Unseasonable warmth will continue this week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Skies will remain mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible today. Highs will be in the mid 70sd with south, southeast winds of 10-15mph. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: More unseasonably warm days are ahead as temperatures don't fluctuate very much despite various systems crossing the area. Mainly cloudy skies are anticipated for the rest of the week with higher rain chances by Wednesday and especially Thursday. Even after the rounds of rain and storms, no drop in temperatures is expected until next week. To put it in perspective, our low temperatures through the weeknights will be as warm as our typical afternoon highs for this time of year. Thunderstorms on Thursday and again this weekend have the possibility of bringing a severe weather threat. We’ll keep you posted.

THE SCIENCE: Upper ridging over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico remains in place. An upper level low pressure over Oklahoma will move northeast into the Great Lakes Region by Wednesday. The next impulse moving through the base of the longwave trough over the Rockies will move to the Southern Plains States by Wednesday Night. The associated front will have an extremely difficult time getting further south than the Interstate 20 corridor through Wednesday as the front continues to parallel the mid-level flow. Rain chances will remain low, in the 30 percent range, through Tuesday Night. Coverage is expected to increase somewhat on Wednesday as the front edges slightly closer. Temperatures will remain extremely warm for Mid-January through the week. On Thursday,  both the ECMWF and GFS models show the impulse over the Southern Plains states taking on a negative tilt as it moves northeastward on Thursday with the axis of the trough crossing the area Thursday Night. Although instability looks to be marginal, low level shear will increase, allowing for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, primarily Thursday Night. There will be a brief dry period behind the trough passage, but there are two more impulses on the heels of Thursday`s system. While much of Friday will be dry, moisture will increase again on Friday Night. A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms may develop on Saturday and again on Sunday. The second will alas push moist air east of the area. On the other side of this system, some slightly cooler air may return to the region.

--Josh

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