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Slow transition to a wetter pattern

2 months 2 weeks 3 days ago Wednesday, July 05 2017 Jul 5, 2017 July 05, 2017 5:44 AM July 05, 2017 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

With local rain coverage remaining low, heat and humidity will continue to be the dominant weather feature.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With some early sun, thermometers will once again surge into the low 90s. High dew points, and therefore high humidity, will produce “feels-like” temperatures near 100 degrees. Winds will not offer much relief—light and southwesterly. The shower search will stay frugal, with only isolated and brief activity possible in the afternoon. The overnight hours will remain muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Rain coverage did not exceed 10 percent on July 4th. Notice that the green shade, indicative of measurable rain, was scarce across the 13 Parish, 3 County WBRZ Weather forecast area. A general uptick in afternoon rain coverage is anticipated through the weekend.  

Up Next: A slight transition is expected to end the week. Not much change will occur in temperatures or humidity, but a little more shower and thunderstorm development will be offered up during the afternoon hours. Still, only expect measurable rain for about 20 to 30 percent of the forecast area and nothing out of the ordinary is anticipated. That trend of increasing afternoon action will carry through the weekend. By then, afternoon highs could be just 2-4 degrees cooler.   

The Tropics: In the Atlantic Basin, there well defined area of low pressure and associated showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The National Hurricane Center has given tropical wave Invest 94L an 80 percent chance of development within the next 5 days. The system will slide westward toward the Lesser Antilles through this week. There is no cause for concern at this time.

THE SCIENCE: An upper level ridge and weak surface high pressure will double to produce hot and mainly dry conditions through Wednesday. Southerly flow—the resulting sea breeze—and surface dew points in the mid 70s may squeeze out a stray shower on Wednesday but activity would be highly scarce. Speaking of the elevated dew points, expected an excessive level of humidity with afternoon heat indices pushing 100 degrees or slightly higher each afternoon through the week. Actual air temperatures will peak in the low 90s. On Thursday, a weak upper level trough will move just north of the area and while forecast models do not suggest any significant vorticity maxima, the axis of that trough may be the culprit for some model QPF and we’ll introduce slim rain chances for the afternoon hours. The weakening ridge and another weak upper disturbance may lead to some isolated activity on Friday. Further westward retreat of the ridge over the weekend will lead to more numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. In addition to that, some northwesterly flow aloft and “ridge-riding” disturbances may enhance convection.   

--Josh

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