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Showers trending less active after today

7 months 3 days 14 hours ago June 14, 2016 Jun 14, 2016 Tuesday, June 14 2016 June 14, 2016 5:54 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

On these “scattered showers” days, some locations stay dry, some see multiple thunderstorms. Yesterday, the western half of the forecast area picked up precipitation while many eastern areas did not. Afternoon storm action will begin to lose its grip on the area with drier and warmer conditions by week’s end.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will offer one more day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look for showers and storm to bubble up from mid-morning forward as daytime warmth fuels development. As has been the case for several days, don’t fret a washout—just some activity to dodge. With a few breaks of sun in between, high temperatures will top out near 90 degrees. Humidity isn’t going anywhere. The overnight lows will struggle to dip below the mid 70s.

Up Next: On Wednesday, the area will begin to transition. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated in nature and possibly absent by Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will respond to more dry times and sunshine by charging into the mid 90s. The stickiness won’t go anywhere—afternoon humidity will stay high making afternoons feel like the low 100s. Overnight lows won’t be able to slip out of the mid 70s.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A weak 500mb trough will pull away to the east through today. Shallower heights may leave behind just enough instability for another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, atmospheric moisture is on the way down so activity will not be as widespread and Saturday – Monday. A subsequent weak mid-level ridge will build over the region Wednesday and really cut down on convective coverage. Right now, am expecting 30% coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area but could see this number trimmed. Additionally, while isolated showers are currently in the mention for Thursday and Friday, these too could be trimmed or eliminated. By next weekend an upper trough moving southeastward into the Eastern United States may have enough gusto to send a weak cold front into the Gulf of Mexico. Models currently show this front to pass Late Saturday with some showers and thunderstorms. Should the front clear the Louisiana Coast, some slightly lower humidity may be anticipated for the second half of next weekend and early next week.

--Josh

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