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Showers return Wed., strong storms possible Thu.

1 year 6 months 4 days ago Wednesday, January 20 2016 Jan 20, 2016 January 20, 2016 6:11 AM January 20, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

An unsettled pair of days will give way to another chill by the weekend.

Today and Tonight: Temperatures will continue on a moderating trend despite the return of clouds and rain. Look for thermometers to reach the upper 60s on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll call for spotty showers, but many locations will spend most of the day without rain falling. Overnight, clouds will stick though there may be a brief lull in shower activity. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

Up Next: On Thursday, a cold front moves into the region. By early afternoon, highs will reach the upper 60s. Rain and thunderstorms will increase in coverage—especially later in the day. Any thunderstorms ahead of the front could be strong and the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of gusty wind or a tornado. Cool air will quickly spill in behind the front. Lingering clouds with brisk northerly winds of about 20mph will make it difficult for Friday to leave the 40s. Don't be surprised by afternoon wind chills in the 30s!


Meteorologist Josh Eachus provides an in-depth analysis of the severe weather threat along the Gulf Coast on Thursday, plus the signficant snow event pegged for the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, CLICK HERE or see below to watch.


THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A disturbance in the sub-tropical jet stream will push a weakening cold front into the region on Wednesday. With this, clouds cover and scattered showers are anticipated through the day. A more impressive upper wave and associated surface storm will materialize for Thursday. With this, rain and thunderstorms are expected, especially ahead of the front. With a strong upper level jet stream and veering winds there will be some factors in place that suggest the possibility of severe weather. However, as is typically the case with cool season severe weather events, instability will be a question. Should some come into fruition, a few stronger storms could produce gusty wind or even a tornado ahead of the cold front. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has the entire region under a slight risk for severe weather. With bust potential on the table, this case will be best evaluated as the atmosphere evolves on Thursday. Beyond rain on Thursday Evening, winds will turn northerly and accelerate. A deepening low pressure system moving towards the Mid-Atlantic (and set to bring big snow to that area) will interact with a high pressure system falling south through the Midwest. The tight pressure gradient will bring sustained winds of 15-25mph to the Gulf Coast with higher gusts. With the trough deepening across the Southeastern United States, the cloud deck will be very stubborn to erode and the overcast, wind combination could make for a very raw day across the Gulf Coast. It would not be surprising to see temperatures remain in the 40s with wind chills in the 30s! By the weekend, the surface high will move into the local area, providing a pair of clear days with moderating temperatures. A freeze will be possible Saturday Morning with highs back to average by Sunday Afternoon.  

--Josh

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