Severe storms, flooding possible
After a stormy Saturday, Sunday revealed drier if not steamy conditions. However, we'll deal with another pair of unsettled days before a really pleasant stretch.
Today and Tonight: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has included the Baton Rouge area in an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms today. This means storms that develop will be capable of producing damaging wind, heavy rain and even a tornado. A *TORNADO WATCH* is in effect until 1 pm for East Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana Parishes along with Wilkinson County. A *FLASH FLOOD WATCH* is up until Tuesday Afternoon for the entire region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this morning and quickly turn strong. Thermometers won't make it past the upper 70s with the off and on storms. Activity will continue in waves right into the overnight hours. After the initial severe storms threat, concerns will shift towards heavy rain. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s.
Like last week, PLEASE HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD, TIMELY WEATHER INFORMATION SHOULD BULLETINS BE POSTED. Remember-a WATCH means conditions are favorable for a weather hazard and you should have a plan in place. A WARNING means that weather hazard is imminent and you should take action!
Looking Ahead: Expect a welcome break beyond Tuesday. Wednesday into the weekend we'll experience mainly clear skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough of lower pressure will be moving from the Mountain West through the Great Plains over the next two days. This upper low will help to spawn a surface low over Texas which will eject eastward across the Gulf Coast between Monday and Tuesday. The resulting weather will be stormy with a few rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Once again, ingredients appear favorable for some storms to turn severe. A fast moving jet stream aloft will create that "vacuum" effect needed to ventilate growing thunderstorms. Along with plenty of low level moisture, storms will juice up and be able to sustain an efficient rain-making process for longer periods of time. A general 1-3" is possible by Tuesday Night. With the above ingredients, instability and shear (changing wind direction and speed giving storms the ability to rotate) will be sufficient enough such that a damaging wind and tornado threat may develop. As this trough finally pushes northeast of the region on Wednesday, Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi will enjoy a nice dry out with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s and considerably lower humidity-an increasing rarity in Late April/Early May.
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