With just over an inch of rain on Tuesday, the area only needs an additional 1.44 inches of rain to officially make 2016 the wettest year on record* at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport. A significant cold front will contribute to that push this weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: While some leftover mist is wrapping up, cloud cover will be stubborn through much of the day. Some sun may try to peek through late. Cooler air has arrived and highs will keep to the mid 60s with north winds of 5-10mph. Overnight, skies will continue to clear with lows in the low 40s.

Up Next: Thursday will find highs in the mid 50s with sunny skies. Friday Morning will be chilly in the upper 30s followed by another nice afternoon with highs returning to the 60s. A much stronger cold front is pegged for the weekend. Saturday will be warm with increasing clouds and possibly a shower. More organized showers and storms associated with the front will come into the area at night. As clouds and showers hang on, temperatures are expected to fall dramatically throughout Sunday going from a high in the upper 60s after midnight to the low 50s by Late Afternoon. Nasty, chilly and rainy conditions may continue through Monday.   

*Records date back to 1930

THE SCIENCE: A cold front has moved south of the area into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. A surface high pressure system driving into the Midwestern United States is helping to begin the cold air advection process as winds have turned northeasterly. Cloud cover lingering behind the front will stick through much of the day as cooler air continues to push in and therefore highs will be a good 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. As skies clear overnight, lows will drop to seasonably cool levels in the low 40s. Despite sunshine, ongoing northeast wind swill keep thermometers below average Thursday and Thursday Night with some locations making it into the upper 30s—especially north of I-12. As the surface high moves east on Friday, return flow will commence allowing significant warming. A trough in the Western United States will result in deep layer southwest flow and thus a breezy and mild Saturday. Highs will be 15 degrees above average. At this time, forecast models are suggesting a stray shower or two, but given the still limited moisture fields, nothing widespread is expected. A strong cold front will move into the area on Saturday Night and this will present a rapid change in the weather. Along the boundary, lift should be strong enough to generate (perhaps a squall line) showers and thunderstorms. The front will push through on Sunday and much colder air will be driven into the region from the north due to another Canadian based surface high. The cold front will then stall in the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday while the upper trough parks in the Southwest U.S. This will result in a continued flow of moisture aloft overtop of this cooler air mass at the surface. Overrunning precipitation will develop making for nasty, rainy conditions on Monday. With regard to temperatures, due to an overnight frontal passage, Sunday’s high will likely occur just after midnight—somewhere in the mid 60s—with readings falling into the low 50s by Late Afternoon. Due to a northeasterly wind shift, overcast skies and showers, high temperatures on Monday may not leave the 40s.

--Josh