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Seasonable to warm

8 months 6 days 9 hours ago February 17, 2016 Feb 17, 2016 Wednesday, February 17 2016 February 17, 2016 5:57 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

After a sunny and seasonable Wednesday, thermometers will take a big jump to end the week.




Today and Tonight: Wednesday is expected to be sunny and seasonable. High temperatures will top out near 70 degrees with light northeasterly winds. We will once again feel a chilly night with low temperatures in the mid 40s. Skies will be clear. Winds will be light and easterly.


Up Next: Thursday and Friday will wrap the week up in dry and mild fashion. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s both days beneath sunny skies. Lows will be in the mid 40s Thursday and low 50s on Friday. The weekend will continue a mild pattern with highs in the upper 70s. A few clouds may be introduced during the afternoon hours with fog during the mornings.

Meteorologist Josh Eachus provides an in-depth look at the forecast in daily weather briefing, posted every morning by 8am.


Forecast Discussion: Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South will provide the area clear skies and northeasterly winds through Wednesday. This will keep temperatures close to average. An upper level trough will break down and lift northeastward away from the United States by Thursday, allowing a mid-level ridge to center over the South Central United States. At the surface, high pressure will position off of the East Coast of the United States allowing return flow to become established. Subsiding air and southerly winds will mean warmer than average temperatures are in store. This general pattern will persist Thursday through Saturday with highs running 10-15 degrees above average and lows 5-10 degrees above average. Another note about the return flow—increasing low-level moisture would suggest fog formation is possible. This is something we’ll watch beginning on Friday Morning. By Sunday, the ridge will flatten and a new trough will nudge southward into the Eastern United States. As heights fall aloft and subsidence lessens, some clouds will be possible by Saturday Afternoon but especially Sunday. A shortwave trough will increase positive vorticity advection through the second half of the weekend with a cold front slowly advancing southward on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along this front to kick off next week. At this time, the upper level winds appear to be oriented parallel to the surface front which would make for a slow progression through the area on Monday and Tuesday. The track of an associated surface low and the amount of instability will determine whether or not severe weather occurs with this system—it’s too early to tell right now, so stay with us. Much cooler temperatures will fill in behind the cold front for the middle part of next week.        



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