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Seasonable despite a passing cold front

9 months 1 day 18 hours ago Tuesday, November 15 2016 Nov 15, 2016 November 15, 2016 6:06 AM November 15, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Today’s cold front will be tough to notice, but a second system this weekend will certainly get our attention.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A weak cold front will cross the area today with little more than some passing cloud cover. A spotty, light shower isn’t impossible, but unlikely. High temperatures will make into the low 70s with clearing skies overnight and a low temperature back into the low 50s.

Up Next: For the remainder of the week, milder air is expected to take hold. Ample sunshine will help Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Afternoons into the upper 70s. Nights won’t be as cool either, with clear skies and lows in the upper 50s. A strong cold front is expected to approach the area in the Friday Night to Saturday Morning timeframe. A weak band of showers may accompany this front so we’ll keep an eye on it for outdoor events, but no organized, widespread precipitation is expected. The bigger story will be temperatures which are expected to drop 20 degrees beyond the front. Highs on Sunday may not leave the 50s while overnight lows make a run at the 30s for the first time this fall.  

The Tropics: The tropics are generally quiet, but an area off the coast of Nicaragua has an 80% chance of development by the weekend. This is not something to be concerned about locally.

THE SCIENCE:

A weak cold front will swing through the region on Tuesday. Low moisture content and weak lift will make it difficult for showers to squeeze out of a passing cloud deck. Measurable rain seems very unlikely but we’ll give respect to the frontal passage with a 10 percent rain coverage mention. Temperatures won’t change much beyond the front with a 500mb ridge building in behind the boundary. In fact, above average readings are expected through Friday with highs into the upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. A much stronger storm system will develop in the Midwest later this week with a sharp trough cutting across the nation’s midsection. This trough will send an associated cold front toward the Gulf Coast. Again, moisture is greatly lacking, but a much sharper temperature gradient may help in the development of a shower or two. Timing isn’t clear just yet as some models bringing the front through Early Saturday Morning with others holding off until Saturday Afternoon. With regard to temperatures, a much different air mass will arrive for the second half of the weekend. Highs will struggle to make 60 degrees on Sunday with Monday Morning lows in the upper 30s.

--Josh

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