Season ends but temperatures stay
“Slightly drier” or not, the Baton Rouge remains hot and will enter astronomical fall feeling more like summer.
Today and Tonight: Another afternoon of sun and warmth is ahead. Despite lower humidity, highs will easily climb into the low 90s. Overnight, expect clear skies with lows right around 70 degrees.
Up Next: For the first day of fall, the feel will be more like summer. High temperatures will be 3-5 degrees above average—in the low 90s. Skies will stay mostly sunny. At night, some humidity will begin to return with low temperatures staying in the low 70s once again. That returning humidity will shape a repetitive forecast through Sunday. Days will be partly sunny with very isolated afternoon showers and highs in the low 90s.
The Tropics: Tropical Depression Karl continues a west-northwest track across the Central Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Karl will be making a northerly turn by Friday as a tropical storm approaching Bermuda. Tropical Storm Lisa is on a path destined for difficulty into the Northeastern Atlantic. With maximum sustained winds of 50mph little additional strengthening is expected as the storm stays out to sea.
Forecast Discussion: An area of surface high pressure northeast of the region will maintain northerly breezes, lower dew points and mainly clear skies through Thursday Morning. The result will be average temperatures in the morning and warmer than average temperatures in the afternoon. Very low atmospheric moisture will continue a stretch without rain. In fact, an extending ridge axis over the weekend will likely continue to keep rain chances very low. Models hint at a few impulses of energy beneath the ridge and with surface winds turning around to the southeast along with increasing moisture, some isolated afternoon convection can’t be ruled out. Still, the ridge will keep it difficult for anything widespread or organized to get going. A deep upper trough will enter the Desert Southwest over the weekend and kick up a cold front in the Lee of the Rockies. Of late, models have been trending toward the front dissipating before reaching the local area. However, as indicated by the National Weather Service, the models likely aren’t yet putting out a very good analysis on this system as it remains in the very low data region of the Pacific Ocean. If the front can make it through, we could see a more significant drop in temperatures.