Another day of showers and thunderstorms is ahead before cooler air begins to arrive midweek.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be more unsettled than Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing a soak to most of the forecast area. Though a daylong washout is not expected, several “rounds” of rain are possible. Some of the storms may produce downpours resulting in up to an inch of rain in some spots. Rain is more likely north and west of Baton Rouge during the morning hours, slipping southeast toward the I-10/12 corridor into the afternoon—more likely affecting the late drive home from work and school. Take it easy on your commute. Even though clouds will persist, it will still be mild with highs in the mid 70s. Overnight, showers will begin to wrap up although clouds will linger. With winds shifting west, temperatures will drop back into the upper 50s.

Up Next: The cold front will finally kick through on Wednesday with clouds breaking from north to south late in the day. Temperatures will be cooler with highs closer to average in the mid 60s. Thursday will start off in the low 40s followed by highs in the mid 50s with sunny skies. Friday Morning will be chilly in the upper 30s followed by another nice afternoon with highs returning to the 60s. Another cold front is pegged for the weekend.  

THE SCIENCE: A fast moving short wave will slide across the Southeastern U.S. on Tuesday. This system will have a more favorable jet stream, and thus greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms than Monday. The weak cold front will still be stalled over the region and this will serve as a low level focus for convective activity through the day. Better instability is expected to be in place as mid-level lapse rates steepen. Fortunately, low level wind shear will remain low, so any thunderstorms will be fairly weak. The short wave will quickly race to the east tonight and expect to see the weak front follow suit. A secondary surge of energy sliding through the Great Lakes will drive the front further offshore by Wednesday Afternoon with showers ending, skies clearing and cooler air arriving from north to south. Temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the front. A surface high pressure system settling into the Upper Midwest will turn on cold air advection and ongoing northeasterly winds will lead to even cooler air arriving Thursday and Thursday Night. After highs in the mid 50s on Thursday and with a thermal trough and clear skies in place Thursday night, expect to see temperatures cool into the upper 30s Friday Morning. A weak upper level ridge riding across the area on Friday will keep skies clear and allow temperature to quickly moderate. Southerly flow will further increase Friday Night and Saturday as the surface high moves east and a deepening trough develops over the Plains States. Another front will race across the country over the weekend, and forecast models bring this feature into the local area on Saturday Night. With it, instability will be strong enough for thunderstorms. The fast-moving front will allow cold air to rush in on Sunday with temperatures possibly achieving their highest early on Sunday before falling through the afternoon. The continued deep southwest flow will cause that front to lock up in the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and overrunning precipitation is expected to develop amidst the much cooler air making for a nasty beginning to next week.

--Josh