Beyond some nuisance shower activity, the Baton Rouge area can look for a spring-like warm up heading into the weekend.

Today and Tonight: Another fast moving system will bring a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the region on Thursday. Again, severe weather is not expected. In fact, some locations may even go without rain. Highs will be in the low 70s. Overnight, skies will clear and lows will return to seasonable readings in the upper 40s.

Moving ahead: A dry and mild trend will take shape heading into the weekend. Sunshine can be expected Friday through Sunday with highs climbing from the low to mid 70s. Nights will be clear with lows generally around 50 degrees. By early next week, a few locations may grab 80 degrees before the next storm system arrives over the Tuesday – Wednesday timeframe.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Another fast moving, but weak shortwave will move through the rear of a trough on Thursday. There will be an accompanying surface low, but it is expected to track far enough north and with a weak enough fronts that little more than a few showers is expected. In fact, temperatures will go virtually unchanged beyond the passage of this front. Zonal flow to slight ridging will take hold of the area Friday through Sunday as a surface high positioned in the Eastern United States will bring southerly winds and aid a warming trend. Dry and unseasonably warm weather will carry into early next week with the consistent warming leading to a few days potentially reaching 80 degrees. Unfortunately, the extended period of warmth and slow moisture return will only prime the atmosphere for the next, more –vigorous looking storm system. Right now, the GFS and ECMWF models are in agreement with a deep trough cutting across the Mid-South. This is an early signal of severe weather potential. Additionally, the models are showing a strong surface low pressure and an associated front with considerable QPF. This could be a product of the models detecting heavy rain, deep convection or perhaps the normal aggression they trend toward in the 7-10 day frame. While it is too early to detail the available ingredients or specific threats that will be possible, some early signals are there that will require our attention in the coming days to see how the atmosphere evolves.

--RG3

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