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Scattered action as unsettled weather pattern takes hold

7 months 2 weeks 2 days ago Tuesday, February 26 2019 Feb 26, 2019 February 26, 2019 6:22 AM February 26, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Back into an unsettled weather pattern, clouds and showers will stay in the forecast for several days. One or two thunderstorms could be strong late Tuesday into Wednesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As a warm front approaches the coast, thick low clouds will hang in skies through Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected as well, but a large chunk of the middle of the day should be without rain. High temperatures will slowly work through the 50s and into the 60s. Especially in the late afternoon and early evening, some thunderstorms will be possible and one or two could produce hail. It may be a good idea to use a park in a garage or carport if possible. Due to the advance of a warm front, low temperatures will not move much from the upper 50s and low 60s.   

Up Next: Moisture will be lingering through much of the week, as a front stalls just north of the area and weak upper level disturbances ride overhead. High temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 70s Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will move in by the weekend. Models are still inconsistent with the timing of the cold front, but the current forecast calls for a Saturday passage. Cooler than average temperatures will follow. Readings may be 10-15 degrees below average for Lundi Gras and Mardi Gras.  

THE EXPLANATION:

A warm front and series of upper level disturbances will keep unsettled weather around for the rest of the week. The first will come on Tuesday and Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms developing north of the warm front along the coast.

Low-level warm air will advance north of the front and help to create some elevated, or non-surface based, thunderstorms. Above the surface layer, there will be enough instability for thunderstorm development. Any of the storms will then have enough of an updraft and low enough freezing levels aloft for some hail to develop. Confidence in rain coverage is low for Tuesday as morning water vapor and mid-level analysis shows a drying atmosphere with very little in the way of forcing. By evening, positive vortcity advection should increase, allowing better rain coverage. After this, timing is tricky on additional disturbances, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through Friday. Once the warm front lifts through on Wednesday morning, well above average temperatures can be expected. This advance of warmth and moisture may create some morning fog as well. The next cold front will come next weekend. As of now, the GFS and ECMWF model guidance differs in timing from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. Of course, as we get closer, these details will become clearer.    

--Dr. Josh

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