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River flooding update; unseasonable warmth

8 months 3 weeks 2 days ago March 15, 2016 Mar 15, 2016 Tuesday, March 15 2016 March 15, 2016 6:10 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

Today the area will exceed 80 degrees for the third straight day—the first such stretch since, go figure, Christmas time.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another dry afternoon is expected Tuesday with a high temperatures topping out in the middle 80s—almost 15 degrees above average! Along with some sunshine, winds will blow southwesterly at 5-15mph. Clouds will increase overnight with lows in the low 60s. A quick shower is possible late.

Looking Ahead: Skies are expected to be mostly cloudy on Wednesday as a cold front slips into the region. An isolated shower or thunderstorm could spark, but coverage will only be on the order of about 20%. Cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms will then be possible Thursday and Friday with another inch or so of rain. Temperatures will be trending back toward average by the weekend.

RIVERS:

River

Current Level (Flood Stage)

Forecast

Amite, Denham Springs

30.5’ (29.0’)

Falling Below by Tue. Pm

Amite, Bayou Manchac

14.2’ (9.0’)

Falling Below by Thu. PM

Amite, Port Vincent

10.9’ (8.0’)

Falling Below by Thu. PM

Amite, French Settlement

5.8’ (4.0’)

Rising to 6.2’ Today, Below by Fri. PM

Tickfaw, Holden

14.9’ (15.0’)

Falling

Tangipahoa, Robert

18.2’ (15.0’)

Falling Below by Wed. PM

Mississippi, Baton Rouge

35.6’ (35.0’)

Rising to 36.5’ Wed. PM

Mississippi, Red River Landing

53.2’ (48.0’)

Steady

Atchafalaya. Krotz Springs

22.9’ (29.0’)

Rising to 27.0’ Sat. AM

Atchafalaya, Morgan City

5.9’ (6.0’)

Rising to 7.2’ Sat. AM

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While a generally zonal flow continues across the southern third f the country a trough across the Upper Midwest will shove a cold front southward into Wednesday. Because of the lacking northward push, this west to east oriented front will sit at the surface, parallel to the jet stream and stall for a few days. Thus, Wednesday through Friday, clouds will be plentiful with times of showers and thunderstorms. Activity will be enhanced as waves of vorticity spin over the boundary. The front itself is not accompanied by much moisture, nor will instability be that high. It is possible that there is no more than an isolated shower or storm Wednesday, followed by some scattered action later Thursday. Forecast models are in agreement with the richest moisture field and most active mid-level spin occurring Friday into Saturday and so that is when we’ll carry the highest rain chances. As the front slowly sags southward into the Gulf of Mexico, winds will take on a northerly component, and with daylong clouds, high temperatures will trend back towards seasonal averages in the low 70s by week’s end. On Saturday, a surface high pressure moving in from the west will give the front a final boot and some clearing may begin as early as Saturday Afternoon. A little cold air advection, or northerly wind, will return the first below average temperatures in almost two weeks to the area by Sunday. Highs in the mid 60s and with lows in the mid 40s. 

--Josh

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

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