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Records and Rina, Red Stick ready for changes

2 months 1 week 3 days ago Tuesday, November 07 2017 Nov 7, 2017 November 07, 2017 5:45 AM November 07, 2017 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After near record warmth on Tuesday a cold front will arrive on Wednesday. More seasonable weather will follow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A repeat warm afternoon is ahead on Tuesday with temperatures in the mid 80s beneath partly sunny skies. Such numbers are almost 10 degrees above average for early November. The record high for the date is 86 degrees in 1919, so that is in reach. Monday made it to 85 degrees, also one tick shy of a record from 2005. Winds will be southwesterly at 5-10mph. Clouds will increase overnight with south winds of 5-10mph and lows in the mid to upper 60s.    

Up Next: A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday. This cold front will move slowly and therefore clouds and showers will be possible through the day. Thanks to this, temperatures will not be able to move beyond the low 70s. Showers and clouds will linger overnight into Thursday. Cooler air will arrive in earnest on Thursday morning as the front slips farther into the Gulf.  Some sun will try to return by afternoon, but highs will stay in the mid 60s. The following two nights will be quite cool with lows in the upper 40s and low 509s. Afternoons will warm appreciably thanks to ample sun. Look for near normal highs in the low to mid 70s.

From the Tropics to Severe Weather: Tropical Storm Rina has formed in the central Atlantic. This is the first time the “R” name has been reached since the 2012 hurricane season. With 40mph winds the minimal tropical system will continue to move north at 10-15mph with a little strengthening possible. Rina poses no threat to land. As a reminder, while we slowly turn attention off the tropics, it is important to prepare and be ready for the second severe weather season.

THE EXPLANATION:

By Wednesday, a shortwave trough will begin to suppress a ridge that has been in control of the Gulf Coast. In addition, a cold front will push it the area and is expected to have enough moisture to work with to produce showers and thunderstorms. Despite some upper level vorticity associated with the system, the parameters for severe weather do not look favorable. Some gusty wind could occur with any thunderstorms, but other than that, just rain is anticipated. Forecast models are allowing for up to an inch or so, locally higher amounts could stem from any persistent thunderstorms. Cold air advection will begin behind the front, reinforced by an area of high pressure in the northern tier of the country. Skies may be slow to clear on Thursday but by afternoon, some sun is expected. Northeasterly winds will result in high temperatures remaining in the upper 60s even if some sunshine occurs. The coldest two nights will be Thursday and Friday with some pockets in the upper 40s possible—especially north of I-12. Afternoon sunshine will bring highs back to seasonable readings in the mid 70s. A weak disturbance and reinforcing front brings a slight chance of showers on Sunday followed by continued cooler temperatures into early next week.   

--Josh

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