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Record warm mornings, high afternoon heat continue

1 year 2 weeks 3 days ago Wednesday, July 06 2016 Jul 6, 2016 July 06, 2016 5:47 AM July 06, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

For the second straight morning, temperatures did not dip below 82 degrees. That makes two straight days with a record maximum low temperature, each of which have tied the warmest low temperature, for any date, in Baton Rouge history. The only way that could change today is if an afternoon shower at Metro Airport drops thermometers below 78 degrees.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A *HEAT ADVISORY* is in place once again. Another steamy afternoon with feels-like temperatures over 105 degrees is ahead. Heat will be in full effect with only a few neighborhoods experiencing a cooling shower. Rain coverage will be on the order of 20-30 percent across the forecast area. Skies will be partly sunny otherwise. At night, relief hasn’t been coming and won’t this go around either. Lows will hover around 80 degrees, perhaps a third straight morning with a record maximum low.  

Up Next: Thursday and Friday bring the lowest rain chances of the week. As a result, many areas will keep sun through the day making air temperatures peak just a touch higher. Some upper 90s aren’t out of the question. And because humidity won’t break, it wouldn’t be surprising if the National Weather Service continues with heat advisories for “feels-like” temperatures spending several hours in the low 100s. Drink more water than you usually would and try to minimize time in direct sun. Check the backseat of your car for kiddos and keep an eye on the elderly—especially those without access to air conditioning. If work requires you to be outside, take frequent breaks. Little change is foreseen this coming weekend, though slightly better afternoon shower chances may return.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While the jet stream remains north of the local area, only a few weak impulses will be available to enhance the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Forecast models hint at some positive vorticity this afternoon, but it is faint and thus lower rain coverage is expected. This weekend, a little weakness between ridges and perhaps a slight upper trough will settle just north of the region. With ample surface energy, this should be enough to trigger additional shower and thunderstorm activity. Though surface forcing will still be lacking, a subtle marine breeze or outflow boundary will be all that is necessary to enhance development during peak heating hours. Either way, measurable rain shouldn’t exceed 30-40% of the 13 Parish 3 County forecast area on any given day. With very high heat and humidity, even by July standards, heat indices will be the main concern through the forecast period. Even the long term trends suggest above average heat will continue next week.    

 --Josh

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