1pm UPDATE: Radar and model trends are showing faster speeds on an area of showers and thunderstorms to the west. If the current activity holds together, rain could impact the LSU Baseball game. High resolution models show rain arriving near game time, radar is estimating showers and thunderstorms not long after that.

Fans of LSU Baseball heading to Alex Box Stadium this evening should monitor radar on their WBRZ WX App. and keep up with @WBRZweather on Twitter, but the latest information brings positive news. Widespread, heavy rain that would halt the game should be holding off until much later tonight.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Skies will be partly sunny on Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s. There is the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm but much of the day will be spent dry. The main batch of precipitation is expected to hold off until the overnight hours. Thus, it could be a bit noisy for sleep time. Muggy air will stop low temperatures around 70 degrees.

Up Next: Friday is still looking unsettled. A batch of showers and storms has the potential to produce downpours, amounting to an inch or two of rain and perhaps even a few strong thunderstorms. Much of the action should occur during the morning hours, though scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through afternoon. The unsettled pattern will quiet as we move into the weekend. Of course, more afternoon sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. On the other hand, humidity will be ratcheted down a notch.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: With a weak front washing out over the Louisiana Gulf Coast, it will take some time for showers and thunderstorms to kick out once again. As an upper level trough moves out of the Midwest, some energy will begin to move through the local area. Positive vorticity advection and omega will contribute to new development as they arrive. While isolated showers may develop along the front, given the latest movement of the trough, much of Thursday may be spent dry and partly sunny before rain and storms arrive during the evening and overnight hours. Early Friday, a weak wave of surface low pressure and an attendant front will traverse the area as the upper trough axis moves across the region. These features will focus a batch of rain and with high precipitable water values; efficient storms could leave behind an inch or two of rain. High resolution models indicate that the heaviest and steadiest rain will occur between midnight and dawn Friday. Scattered activity will continue in the proximity of the front and trough into the afternoon before wrapping up in the evening. A mid-level ridge will boot the trough eastward while a surface high pressure system settles into the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Northeasterly winds, drier air and sunny skies will be the result. High pressure controlling the Eastern United States weather pattern into early next week will keep the local area quiet.   

--Josh

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