Rain, thunderstorms may slow late day commute
A cold front will move into the area today, continuing unsettled weather. A brief break is then expected for mid-week.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with a few showers early as high temperatures reach for the upper 70s. A cold front will approach in the afternoon hours and a squall line is expected to lead this boundary into the area between 3pm – 7pm and this timing certainly means the late commute could get gnarly. We’re going with 100 percent coverage today, meaning all will receive rain, but again most of that is limited to the second half of the day. Amounts should not exceed one inch and in most cases will stay below that. There is also a 1 out of 5, “marginal risk” for severe weather but outside of one or two gusty storms, nothing significant is expected. Overnight, showers will end and temperatures will fall into the upper 50s as winds shift northwest.
Up Next: The mid-week forecast is a bit tricky, but right now, it looks as though partly sunny skies and fairly seasonable temperatures will prevail. Numbers may end up a few degrees above average. Weak disturbances may warrant the mention of some passing showers for the end of the week and into the weekend.
THE SCIENCE: An upper level trough will cross the region today and tonight. Ahead of the trough will be an area of positive vorticity advection and at the surface, an associated cold front will approach as well. Ahead of the boundary, instability will be sufficient for strong updrafts—especially with frontal forcing—however, wind shear is greatly lacking and with a saturated column, negative buoyancy is looking to be minimal as well. For that reason, the “Marginal Risk” issued by the Storm Prediction Center seems good, with gusty wind being the primary possibility. Small hail isn’t out of the question, though the freezing layer should be too high for this to be a widespread concern. The upper trough and front will cross overnight with clearing expected into Wednesday. By the end of the event, 1” of rain is possible. A period of quiet weather is on tap through Thursday Morning before the next weak, mid-level disturbance passes late Thursday into Friday. Low level moisture looks sufficient for passing clouds and isolated showers; however nothing widespread is anticipated as of now. A slightly more potent shortwave is anticipated for the weekend with greater rain chances Saturday Night and Sunday. This one is a little far out in time with poor consistency among forecast models for in-depth detail and timing at this time.
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